[00:00:37]
GO AHEAD AND GET STARTED THEN.
ONE THE BENEFITS ME TO WRITE, UH, I'LL GO AHEAD AND CALL THIS MEETING IN ORDER.
THIS IS THE MEETING IN THE PORT OF SUPERVISORS FINANCE AND AUDIT COMMITTEE MEETING FOR FEBRUARY 7TH.
AND THEN PRETTY MUCH WRAPS THINGS UP.
SO I THINK WE'RE DONE HERE, UH, FEBRUARY 7TH.
UH, FIRST OF ALL, JUST THANK EVERYBODY FOR TAKING THE TIME OUTTA THE BUSY SCHEDULES TO JOIN US TODAY.
UM, MATTERS OF FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY ARE, UH, OF PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE TO THE COUNTY.
AND SO WE, THIS IS WHY WE PERIODICALLY GATHERED TO BREAK TRUST AND TRACK UP WITH THE RIGHT ANSWERS HERE.
SO THANK YOU FOR TAKING THE TIME.
UM, FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA IS ELECTION OF OFFICERS.
UM, AS YOU ALL KNOW, IN JANUARY, THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS HAS THEIR ANNUAL REORGANIZATION MEETING AND THEY ELECT NEW OFFICERS AND THEY APPOINT PEOPLE TO, UH, BOARD MEMBERS TO THE VARIOUS COMMITTEES.
AND THEN ONCE THEY'VE MADE THOSE APPOINTMENTS, THEN THE COMMITTEES FOLLOW ALONG WITH ELECTION OF OFFICERS AT THE COMMITTEE LEVEL.
SO, AT THIS POINT, I GUESS WE JUST ELECTED JOHN CHAIR OF THIS COMMITTEE.
UM, BUT AT THIS POINT I'LL GO AHEAD AND OPEN UP THE FLOOR TO NOMINATIONS.
UM, FOR CHAIR OF THIS COMMITTEE, DO WE HAVE ANY NOMINATIONS? YOU HAVE A NOMINATION AND A SECOND FOR KEN PETERSON.
ARE THERE OTHER NOMINATIONS? THE NOMINATION BE CLOSED.
ALL IN FAVOR SIGNIFIED BY SAYING AYE.
UM, I THANK YOU FOR THAT VOTER CONFIDENCE.
I WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE IN THE COMING YEAR AS THE, UH, HEAD OF THIS COMMITTEE.
UM, I'D LIKE TO GO AHEAD AND, UH, OPEN THE FLOOR FOR NOMINATIONS FOR VICE CHAIR, AND I'D LIKE TO NOMINATE, UH, SUPERVISOR VADER AS THE, UH, VICE CHAIR OF THIS COMMITTEE.
AND SECOND, SECOND, BEEN SECONDED.
UM, UH, ANY OTHER NOMINATIONS? CLOSED NOMINATIONS, UH, MOVE TO BE CLOSED? THEY'RE CLOSED.
UH, ALL IN FAVOR SIGNIFIED BY SAYING AYE.
UNANIMOUS, UH, IT WAS A HARD FOUGHT CAMPAIGN.
WE CAN NOW TAKE DOWN THE ART SIGN.
UM, THANK YOU FOR SERVING, UH, SUPERVISOR.
AND WE'LL TRY AND MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO ATTEND ALL THE MEETINGS SO YOU DON'T END UP HAVING THE CHAIR.
UM, ALRIGHT, SO THAT'S, UH, CALL TO ORDER ELECTION OF OFFICERS.
NOW WE'RE DOWN TO THE APPROVAL OF MINUTES, THE MINUTES WE'RE CIRCULATING IN ADVANCE WHILE THE MEMBERS, UM, BEFORE WE GO THE MEMO, UH, MINUTES, UH, DO WE HAVE A QUORUM OF, UM, THE COMMITTEE, VOTING COMMITTEE MEMBERS? WE DO THE UNANIM.
ALL FIVE VOTING MEMBERS ARE HERE.
UM, YOU, THE MINUTES HAVE BEEN, UH, DISTRIBUTED IN ADVANCE.
ARE THERE ANY ADDITIONS, DELETIONS, OR CORRECTIONS MODIFICATIONS FOR MINUTES? SEEING NONE? UM, I'LL ASK, I'LL ENTERTAIN A MOTION TO APPROVE THE MINUTES.
MOVE THAT WE APPROVE THE MINUTES.
ANY OPPOSED? MAY ANY ABSTENTION? OKAY, UNANIMOUS, THE MINUTES ARE, UH, APPROVED.
UH, THE FOURTH ITEM ON OUR AGENDA IS THE FE UH, FISCAL YEAR, 23 SECOND QUARTER, UM, RESULTS AND REPROJECTION.
AND FOR THAT, I WILL TURN OVER TO OUR DIRECTOR OF FINANCE.
UM, I'LL QUICKLY GO OVER FIGURES PROJECTED FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.
UM, THESE WERE BASED ON REVENUES AND EXPENSES AS OF DECEMBER 31ST.
UM, I'M LOOKING AT US COMING IN 5 MILLION OVER BUDGET, WHICH IS ALSO, UM, IT'S, WE'RE COMING IN 4 MILLION HIGHER THAN PRIOR YEAR FY 22.
UM, THAT'S MOSTLY DUE TO OUR PERSONAL PROPERTY TAXES.
OR, I'M SORRY, JUST, I DIDN'T MEAN TO INTERRUPT.
UH, START WITH REFERENCE SERGEANT.
THAT IS A GOOD, THAT IS A GOOD THING.
JUST WANNA MAKE SURE WE'RE RINGING 5 MILLION MORE THAN WE BUDGETED.
UM, THAT'S MOSTLY DUE TO OUR PERSONAL PROPERTY VALUES BEING HIGHER.
UM, WE ARE ALREADY AT 70% COLLECTIONS AT 50% OF THE YEAR.
UM, OF COURSE WE ARE LOOKING AT A DOWNWARD TURN IN VALUES FOR THE SECOND HALF.
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UM, WITH ALL OF THAT TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION, WE WERE LOOKING AT COMING IN 5 MILLION OVER BUDGET FOR REVENUE, WHICH IS A GOOD THING.UM, ON THE QUICK QUESTION ON, YES.
UM, THE BOARD OF SUPERVISOR IS GONNA HEAR A PRESENTATION FROM THE ASSESSOR.
UH, THAT WAS THE ASSESSMENTS THAT WERE DONE IN JANUARY THAT BILLS WERE PROVIDED JUNE, I BELIEVE.
WHICH IS PART OF THIS FISCAL YEAR.
DO THESE REPRO PROJECTIONS FOR THE CURRENT FISCAL YEAR THEN STEP UP OR THEY DO.
SO THE FIRST TIME I LOOKED AT THIS AND PRESENTED WITH Y'ALL AT TWO BY TWOS, UM, I HAD NOT TAKEN THAT SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR INTO ACCOUNT AFTER LOOKING AT THAT.
THAT'S WHY I HAVE AN ADJUSTMENT OF A, UH, RETURN TO FUND BALANCE BECAUSE THE SECOND HALF IS GONNA BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER IN FRONT OF YOU.
AND I'M STILL LEANING ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.
IT MAY TURN OUT THREE MONTHS FROM NOW THAT THIS IS AN EVEN BETTER PICTURE AT THE END.
ON THE EXPENSE SIDE, WE'RE LOOKING TO SPEND, I'M PROJECTING ABOUT 71 MILLION, WHICH IS, UH, I JUST WANTED TO PUT THE COLUMN OVER TO THE RIGHT THAT YOU'LL SEE IN BLUE.
WE'RE LOOKING AT SPENDING ABOUT 10 MILLION MORE THAN WE DID IN FY 22.
AND THAT'S PRIMARILY DUE TO OUR INCREASE IN DEBT PAYMENTS AND OUR, UM, INCREASE IN PUBLIC SAFETY WHERE WE HAVE HEAVILY INVESTED IN PUBLIC SAFETY AND THE FY 23 BUDGET.
UM, NO OTHER REAL CHANGES FROM FY 22 TO 23.
AND THAT DEBT SERVICE, I'M SORRY TO INTERRUPT AGAIN, BUT THAT DEBT SERVICE DOES INCLUDE, UH, THE, UH, GENERAL OBLIGATION THAT ISSUED THE FUND.
THAT'S THE PRIMARY, BUT THAT'S THE, UM, SO ON THE OPERATING SIDE, WE'RE LOOKING AT A RETURN TO FUND BALANCE OF 8 MILLION.
FROM THAT, WE'RE TRANSFERRING ABOUT 6 MILLION OUT FOR CIP P UM, CSA BRINGING US TO A NET CHANGE IN FUND BALANCE OF 2 MILLION.
RETURNING TO THE GENERAL FUND AT JUNE 30.
THAT WOULD PUT US IN A GREAT POSITION FOR ALL OF OUR TARGETS.
WE'RE GONNA BE, UM, AT SLIGHTLY UNDER 24, OR WE'RE RIGHT AT 24% OF OUR FUND BALANCE TARGET.
UM, WE ARE AT 7% ON OUR DEBT CAPACITY, WHICH OUR, OUR LIMIT IS 10, SO WE'RE SAFE THERE.
UH, AND WE'VE GOT MORE THAN 3% IN OUR REVENUE STABILIZATION, SO WE'RE IN A GOOD PLACE.
ALSO, PROMISE, I WAS GONNA SAY
I FEEL PRETTY STRONG ABOUT IT, IT THOUGH.
NEXT QUESTIONS ABOUT THE APPLAUSE TO ANY OVATION.
ANY, UH, UH, I, I JUST WANT TO MENTION SOMETHING HERE.
UM, THIS IS THE WAY, YOU KNOW, GOODSON APPROACHES OUR FINANCES.
WHAT YOU SEE HERE IS A STRUCTURALLY BALANCED BUDGET WHERE RECURRING REVENUES COVER RECURRING EXPENSES.
WHAT YOU SEE IS CONSERVATIVE BUDGETING WHERE YOU GENERATE A SLIGHT SURPLUS, WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO COVER THE REINVESTMENT IN THE COUNTY FACILITIES TO MAINTAIN OUR ASSET BASE.
UH, AND THAT'S THE TRANSFER OF THE SIX MAIN TRANSFER TO THE CIP P PROGRAM AND STILL HAVE ENOUGH LEFTOVER TO SLIGHTLY GROW THE RESERVES ALONG WITH THE SIZE OF THE BUDGET SO THAT WE DON'T DETERIORATE AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE BUDGET.
IF YOU LEAVE A NOMINAL DOLLAR OF RESERVES AND YOUR BUDGET GROWS, YOU'RE WEAKENING YOUR POSITION BY, BY REDUCING THE PERCENTAGE OF YOUR BUDGET THAT YOU HAVE IN RESERVES.
SO WHAT YOU SEE, HERE'S A, AS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF A GOOD EXAMPLE, IT'S, UH, IT'S CONSERVATIVE, IT'S STRUCTURALLY BALANCED, IT GENERATES ENOUGH, UH, SURPLUS TO REINVEST IN THE COUNTY TO MAINTAIN OUR ASSETS AND MAINTAIN OUR RESERVES AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE BUDGET.
SO THIS IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS.
IT MAY GET, GET BETTER, BUT IT IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS.
UM, SO CONGRATULATIONS AND THANK YOU FOR ALL THAT.
ANY OTHER THOUGHTS OR QUESTIONS ON THE, UH, PAY FORECAST OR THE BUDGET HERE? OKAY.
WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THAT.
AND, UH, WE'LL STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THE THIRD AND FOURTH QUARTER COMMENCES AS THE SECOND QUARTER.
SO WE'VE GOT HALF A YEAR TO GO.
SO WE'LL SEE HOW THAT ACTUALLY TURNS OUT.
UH, WHICH IS A BIT OF A SEGUE TO, TO START TO LOOK TO THE FUTURE.
UM, AS YOU ALL MAY OR MAY NOT KNOW, UH, JANUARY THROUGH APRIL IS THE BUDGET SEASON FOR THE COUNTY.
AND, UM, WE USUALLY ADOPT OUR BUDGET SOMETIME IN APRIL WHEN WE START THAT PROCESS.
ACTUALLY IT'S TOWARD THE END OF, UH, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER FOR THE ASSESSMENTS AND THEN GOING ON INTO NEW YEAR.
UH, THEN WE START WITH WHAT REVENUE WE HAVE AVAILABLE, WHICH IS THE ASSESSMENTS, TIMES, AND TAX RATES.
AND THEN WE FIGURE OUT WHAT'S THE, UH, PRIORITIES FOR THE COUNTY AND HOW TO SPEND IT AND WHATNOT.
SO THOSE DISCUSSIONS ARE VERY PREMATURE RIGHT NOW, SINCE WE'RE HAVING FEBRUARY.
I GUESS NOT JANUARY THIS YEAR IS JUST SHOOTINGS FLYING BY, BUT, BUT WE'RE KIND OF IN THE EARLY STAGES
[00:10:01]
OF THAT DISCUSSION.SO IN THIS FORUM HERE, WHAT I THOUGHT WE'D DO IS START TO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE FUTURE.
SO WE'VE GOT THE SECOND GO BACK TWO MEETINGS AGO.
WE, WE DID SOME HEAVY LIFT ON THE AUDIT.
LAST MEETING WE DID KIND OF A HEAVY LIFT ON THE NEW SCHOOL FINANCING.
THIS ONE, SPOILER ALERT, WE DON'T HAVE TO MAKE ANY RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE BOARD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE MEETINGS, BUT WE DO WANT TO TALK ABOUT, UH, SOME INITIAL DISCUSSIONS ABOUT WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT LOOK LIKE.
SO THAT'S THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FISCAL YEAR, BUT THEN ALSO THE COMING FISCAL YEAR.
NOW, THE BUDGET WE'RE WORKING ON NOW ENDS IN JUNE OF 20 24, 18 MONTHS FROM NOW.
SO, UH, WE'VE GOTTA HAVE SOME BIT OF A CRYSTAL BALL THAT CAN SEE 18 MONTHS INTO THE FUTURE.
UM, SO TO HELP US DO THAT, WE CAN EITHER THINK ABOUT IT OURSELVES, UM, WE COULD HIRE AN OUTSIDE FIRM TO COME IN AND HELP US WITH THAT.
OR WE COULD REALIZE THAT THE GOVERNOR HIRED SOME OUTSIDE FIRMS OF EXCELLENT REPUTE, UH, TO COME IN, UH, WITH SOME HIGH PRICE TALENT AND EXPLAIN HOW THEY SEE THE FUTURE.
SO WHAT I THOUGHT WE'D DO IS JUST DOVETAIL OFF WHAT THE, THE GOVERNOR DID, UH, AND PICK UP SOME OF THE SLIDES THAT WERE PRESENTED TO THE JOINT MONEY COMMITTEES.
UH, THE SENATE, THE VIRGINIA SENATE FINANCE APPROPRIATIONS AND HOUSE FINANCE APPROPRIATIONS, THEY HAD A JOINT, UH, MONEY COMMITTEE MEETING IN WHICH THE, UH, THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND REVENUE FORECAST WAS PRESENTED.
SO I THOUGHT WHAT WE DO IS JUST RATHER THAN REINVENT THE WHEEL, UH, NOT NECESSARILY PLAGIARIZED, BUT AT LEAST LEARN, UH, THE EASY WAY AND INEXPENSIVE WAY FROM WHAT SOMEBODY ELSE HAS ALREADY SPENT THE MONEY OFF.
NOW, THIS IS OUT IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN.
YOU CAN FIND THIS IF YOU GOOGLE SEARCH, UH, SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE, UH, YOU'LL BE ABLE TO ACCESS THESE SLIDES.
SO THERE'S NOTHING SECRET ABOUT THEM, BUT I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE AN EFFICIENT WAY FOR US TO STIMULATE SOME DISCUSSION AROUND WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT LOOK LIKE 18 MONTHS FROM NOW.
I, AS A SECRETARY OF FINANCE REPRESENTATIVE TO THE JOINT, UH, MONEY COMMITTEES, INFLATION'S BEEN ON EVERYBODY'S MIND AND IT'S BEEN ON ALL THE TALK SHOWS AND WHATNOT, UM, BECAUSE IT HAS AN ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATING IMPACT, ESPECIALLY ON THE MOST VULNERABLE PEOPLE IN UH, SOCIETY.
AND, UH, WE'VE ALL SEEN THE PRICE OF EVERYTHING FROM TO GASOLINE GOT THE SKYROCKET.
AND IT PUTS A LOT OF PRESSURE ON BUDGETS, BOTH INDIVIDUAL BUDGETS AROUND THE KITCHEN TABLE AND COUNTY BUDGETS AND STATE BUDGETS.
UM, ESPECIALLY IF REVENUES DON'T KEEP UP WITH THE COSTS.
AND, UH, SO THE, THE QUESTION IS, WHERE, WHERE HAS INFLATION? WHERE'S IT BEEN? WHERE'S IT GOING? SO WHAT YOU'VE GOT HERE IS THE HEADLINE CPI, ALL, ALL ITEMS, UM, WHICH IS WHAT YOU USUALLY SEE, JUST THE HEADLINE NUMBER AND THEN THE CORE.
AND THE CORE IS BASICALLY X FOOD ENERGY, WHICH ARE THE MORE, UH, COMPONENTS OR INPUTS TO THAT, UH, UH, INDEX.
SO YOU CAN SEE WITH OR WITHOUT.
AND THEN, UH, ALL ITEMS BY SOME SHELTER, SHELTER WILL BE, UH, RENT, RENT FOR APARTMENTS OR, OR MORTGAGE PAYMENTS AND THAT KINDA THING.
SO I GUESS WHAT THEY'RE SUGGESTING IS INFLATION, UH, WAS RISING FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY THROUGH 21 AND EARLY 22, BUT IT SOME SEEMS TO HAVE PEAKED A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO AND IT'S STARTING TO COME BACK DOWN AGAIN.
NOW THE FEDERAL RESERVES TARGET, WHERE THEY'RE TRYING TO GET TO, IS ABOUT 2%.
AND THEY'RE RAISING INTEREST RATES TO TRY AND SLOW THE ECONOMY TO GET INFLATION COOLED OFF, DOWN TO THAT 2%.
SO EVEN THOUGH IT MAY HAVE PEAKED THAN IT'S COMING DOWN, IT'S STILL AROUND 6%, WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH.
SO THERE'S MORE WORK TO BE DONE.
UH, OBVIOUSLY MORE, MORE, UH, RATE INCREASES GO GOING FORWARD TO TRY AND SLOW THINGS FURTHER.
AND THEY REALLY WON'T TAKE THE FOOT OFF THE BRAKES UNTIL WE GET DOWN TO AROUND THAT 2% LEVEL OR SOMETHING.
BUT IF THERE IS ANY GOOD NEWS, IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE, UH, PEAKED SOMEWHAT AND ARE STARTING TO COME BACK DOWN.
NOW I MENTIONED THE FEDERAL RESERVES GOT MORE LAWN MO HERE, MORE WORK TO DO BY RAISING INTEREST RATES TO SLOW THINGS DOWN AND COOL IT FROM 6% DOWN TO TWO.
THIS IS THE FED FUNDS RATE, UH, WHICH IS THE OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE.
AND IT'S OVER THE SHORT END OF INTEREST RATES.
IT'S NOT THE 10 YEAR, THE 20 YEAR, THE LONG END, IT'S JUST THE OVERNIGHT RATE, THE ONE DAY RATE.
BUT THE FED SETS THAT RATE, UH, AND MEETINGS ABOUT EVERY SIX WEEKS.
UH, THEY JUST HAD ONE, UH, FEBRUARY 1ST, AND THAT'S NOT UP HERE, BUT THEY ANNOUNCED ANOTHER INCREASE, ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINT.
SO IT'S UP TO 4.75 INSTEAD OF FOUR FIVE.
UH, AND THEY CONTINUE TO MARCH.
SO, AS I MENTIONED, IT LOOKS LIKE THEY'RE NOT QUITE DONE YET CAUSE THEY HAVEN'T ACHIEVED THEIR, THEIR HANG GOAL YET.
SO THIS WILL, IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, UM, UP UNTIL ABOUT TWO WEEKS AGO, THEY THOUGHT IT WOULD PEAK AROUND 4 75.
NOW THE MARKETS ARE PRICING IN MAYBE FIVE AND AN EIGHT, FIVE AND A QUARTER IS THE, THE TOP.
I'M TRYING TO GUESS WHEN THEY, WHEN WHEN THEY SAY THEY'RE DONE, THEN THE FEDERAL RESERVE SAID ONCE THEY GET DONE, THEY'RE GONNA LEAVE IT THERE FOR QUITE SOME TIME SO THAT INFLATION DOESN'T KINDLE BACK UP AGAIN.
IT'S KINDA, WHEN YOU PUT OUT A FIRE, THERE'S EMBERS, YOU WANNA MAKE SURE THE EMBERS AROUND BEFORE YOU DECLARE A VENTURE.
[00:15:01]
SO, UH, RIGHT NOW THEY'RE SAYING IT COULD BE THE ENTIRE YEAR OF 23 WHERE THE LEAVE RATES THAT HIGH, UH, BEFORE THEY START TO CUT RATES THEN.SO MORE, MORE SLOWING COME LIKE THIS.
NOW ON THE LEFT SIDE, YOU SEE HOW BIG STARTS.
UM, THIS IS A CHANGE THREE MONTHS, UH, AVERAGE YEAR OVER YEAR.
SO, UH, WHAT YOU SEE IS LAST JUNE, JULY, UH, WHEN INFLATION KIND OF PEAKED AND THE FED HIKES WERE STARTING TO FIGHT A LITTLE BIT.
THOSE INTEREST RATE INCREASES MOST DIRECTLY AFFECT INTEREST SENSITIVE PARTS OF THE ECONOMY.
THOSE ARE THE THINGS I CALL BORROW TO BUY.
YOU BORROW TO BUY A CAR, YOU BORROW TO BUY A HOUSE, YOU BORROW TO BUY THAT BORROWING COST.
THE INTEREST RATE GOES UP AND THAT SLOWS THOSE INTEREST SENSITIVE PARTS DOWN.
DOESN'T NECESSARILY SLOW DOWN A GALLON OF MILK OR A LOAF OF CREDIT CAUSE YOU BUY THAT STUFF ANYWAY, BUT THE BORROW TO BUY YOU SERVE DIRECTLY.
SO ON THE LEFT YOU SEE HOUSING STARTS, UH, FALLING OFF QUITE A BIT YEAR OVER YEAR.
UH, ONE OF THE PROBLEMS SO FAR IS THAT, UH, THE US EMPLOYMENT IS SLOWLY A BIT, BUT THE, THIS WEEK THEY ANNOUNCED THE RATE IS STILL 3.4%, WHICH I THINK IS A 20 YEAR RECORD OF UNEMPLOYMENT OF BEING SO LOW, AS LONG AS IT'S FULL EMPLOYMENT AND BIDDING FOR NEW HIRES AND BIDDING FOR EMPLOYEES.
PRICES ON WAGES ARE GONNA BE, THE PRESSURE'S GONNA BE HIGHER ON WAGES, WHICH IS GONNA, AGAIN, GONNA KINDLE MORE INFLATION.
SO THEY, THEY NEED, THEY WANT TO CREATE SOME SLACK IN THE EMPLOYMENT MARKET, UH, IN ORDER TO TAKE PRESSURE OFF OF WAGE INCREASES, WHICH TAKES PRESSURE OFF OF INFLATION.
SO THE LEFT HAND SIDE, UM, THE ECONOMY'S VERY STRONG, EVEN THOUGH INTEREST RATES ARE HIGHER, UH, MORTGAGE, UH, INTEREST PAYMENTS AND CAR PAYMENTS, UH, HOUSE PAYMENTS, EVERYTHING IS TAKING MORE MONEY.
AND IN FACT, INFLATION'S BEEN RUNNING AT 10 OR 11 WHILE, UH, UH, WAGE GAINS HAVE BEEN 5, 6, 7.
SO YOU'VE BEEN LOSING GROUND TO INFLATION.
YOUR, YOUR REVENUES AREN'T KEEPING UP.
SO WHAT DO YOU DO? YOU'RE DIGG INTO SAVINGS.
SO ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE YOU CAN SEE THE PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE.
HOW MUCH MONEY DO YOU HAVE LEFT AT THE END OF THE MONTH? AND IT'S TIGHT DURING THE PANDEMIC WHEN PEOPLE WERE RECEIVING EXTRA UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS WITHOUT HAVING TO COMMUTE TO WORK.
UM, NOW IT'S THE OPPOSITE, UH, INFLATIONS FROM TAKING MORE AND MORE, UM, OF YOUR INCOME.
SO THE SAVINGS RATE IS, IS PLUMMETING.
AND SO WHILE THE ECONOMY IS STILL DOING WELL, IT'S BEING ARTIFICIALLY SUPPORTED BY DRAWING DOWN SAVINGS.
IT'S NOT, UH, A SUSTAINABLE KIND OF ENVIRONMENT.
AND THAT SAVINGS WAS DISPARED ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE BASED ON YOUR INCOME.
SO THE HIGHER END INCOME, IF YOU'RE MAKING TWO OR 300,000 A YEAR AND YOU GET A THOUSAND DOLLARS CHECK FOR THE COMPANY, YOU PROBABLY JUST PUT THAT IN YOUR SAVINGS.
IF YOU'RE MAKING 30,000 A YEAR AND YOU GET A THOUSAND, YOU PROBABLY SPEND OUT MILK AND BREAD SO YOU DON'T SAVE QUITE AS MUCH.
SO THE, UH, THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS AS WE'RE PUTTING THE BUDGET TOGETHER OF, YOU KNOW, HIGH-END VERSUS LOW END SAVINGS RATE.
HOW SUSTAINABLE IS THE CURRENT ECONOMIC STRENGTH? UH, RIGHT.
QUESTIONS ON IT SO FAR? ALRIGHT.
WHERE IS THE, UH, THE NEXT 1224 TO 48 MONTHS TO UH, UNFOLD? THIS SOURCE IS FROM THE US BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS AND THE IHS MARKET.
UH, IF YOU LOOK TO THE RIGHT, WE'RE IN Q1 OF 23.
AND YOU SEE THAT LAST YEAR, THE FIRST HALF, THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS WERE NEGATIVE GDP, THIS GDP GROWTH.
SO WE HAD NEGATIVE FOR TWO QUARTERS LAST YEAR, THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS, BUT THEN IT RESUMED GROWTH AGAIN, UH, TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR.
NOW WHAT THEY'RE PROJECTING IS A MILD RECESSION IN Q2 OF THIS YEAR, WHICH QUARTER TWO, WHICH IS, UH, SECOND QUARTER AND THEN LASTING FOR THREE QUARTERS.
SO A MILD RECESSION FOR THREE QUARTERS, STARTING AROUND, UH, MARCH, APRIL, MAY, JUNE TIMEFRAME.
NOW I WILL TELL YOU THAT BASED ON THE NUMBERS THAT CAME OUT THIS, THIS WEEK, WHICH IS AFTER THIS PRESENTATION OF THE, THE, UH, PROSPECT OF A RECESSION AND THE DEPTH, ANTICIPATED DEPTH HAS BEEN PUSHED OUT A BIT.
FOLKS ARE SAYING IT MAY NOT BE SECOND QUARTER, IT MAY BE THIRD QUARTER.
UH, THIS, THIS DATA CHANGES ON A DAILY BASIS ALMOST.
BUT FOR RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST HALF SHOULD BE OKAY BASED ON HOW STRONG THE ECONOMY IS.
BUT SOMETIME AROUND THE SECOND HALF THEY'RE ANTICIPATING TWO OR THREE QUARTERS OF MILD, UH, RECESSION.
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QUESTIONS SO FAR? AUDIENCE, JUST TIMING, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT WE'RE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 23, BUT THE DATA IS FISCAL YEAR.SO I WOULD'VE THOUGHT WE'RE IN THE SECOND QUARTER, 23 RIGHT NOW WE'RE IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF OUR FISCAL YEAR.
I WAS THINKING IT'S JUST FED FISCAL YEAR, RIGHT? SO, SO THE LAST QUARTER OF THE CALENDAR YEAR IS THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE, OF FEDERAL FIFTH FISCAL YEAR.
THAT IS THE SECOND QUARTER OF OUR, SO JUST THE TIMING, I WAS TRYING TO LOOK AT THE CHART AND FOLLOW THE TIMING.
SO RECESSION LITERALLY COMING UP IN THE NEXT STARTING I ANOTHER STATE OF CHANGES ALL THE TIME.
BUT WHAT THIS IS TELLING US IS RECESSION IN, IN, IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AHEAD AGAIN.
WHAT THIS SLIDE IS SAYING, UH, IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, IT BEGINS FOR THREE QUARTERS.
BUT AGAIN, IN THE DATA THAT'S COME OUT IN THE LAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS, IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY, IT SLID A LITTLE BIT FURTHER OUT.
UH, CAUSE HE GOTTA BEEN SO STRONG.
AND SINCE THIS WAS THE GOVERNOR HIRING FOLKS TO PITCH TO THE JOINT MONEY COMMITTEES WHERE THEY'RE USING VIRGINIA'S FISCAL YEAR.
SO YEAH, I FORGOT AT THE BEGINNING.
I WAS THINKING YOUR ADVISORS IS A FEDERAL AGENCY, YOU'RE RIGHT.
BUT THIS WAS A PITCH TO A STATE AGENCY, SO I'M GUESSING HE, WHICH WOULD BE CO THANK YOU.
OTHER QUESTIONS? UH, INTERSECTION.
SO IS ANY OF THIS HELPFUL OR TRYING TO DISCUSS THE FUTURE AND WHERE THINGS ARE HEADED OR DID EVERYBODY ALREADY KNOW ALL THIS OR, I MEAN, IT JUST SEEMED LIKE RATHER PAY SOMEONE TO COME IN AND ADVISE US.
WE JUST USE THOSE SLIDES AND, AND SEE WHAT THEY'RE WORTH.
UM, SO WITH THAT AS A BACKDROP, UM, IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A MILD SLOWDOWN, HOUSING STARTS HAVE ALREADY SLOWED DOWN.
I, I GUESS HOW DO YOU TIE THIS BACK TO OUR, OUR, OUR BUDGET? UM, AS WE KNOW, MOST OF OUR REVENUE COMES FROM EITHER UM, REAL PROPERTY TAXES, WHICH IS TIED TO HOUSING AND COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY OR PERSONAL PROPERTY TAXES, WHICH IS TIED TO VEHICLES AND AUTOS AND WHATNOT.
TELL YOU SHOULD TELL US WHERE, WHERE THAT COMES IN FROM.
BUT UM, BUT ANYWAY, SO THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR REVENUES ARE TIED TO THOSE THINGS THAT A LOT OF WHICH ARE INTEREST RATES SENSE.
SO IT KIND OF HELPS TO KNOW WHERE INTEREST RATES ARE GOING AND KNOW MIGHT AFFECT THE PRICES OF THOSE THINGS WHERE WE COLLECT OUR REVENUE.
SO THIS KINDA HELPS US THAT BACKGROUND.
FOSTER ARE QUESTIONS ON THE BUDGETING TO GET SOME DISCUSSIONS STARTED.
UM, OUR HOUSE PRICES GOING UP OR DOWN DURING OUR NEXT FISCAL YEAR, WHICH STARTS SIX MONTHS FROM NOW AND GOES FOR 12 MONTHS THROUGH 18 MONTHS FROM NOW.
SHOULD THE BUDGET HAVE AN INCREASE OR A DECREASE QUESTION ALREADY HAVE GO AROUND, AROUND THE TABLE FOR LACK OF INCREASE YOU THINK HOUSING PRICE INCREASE? WELL FOR OUR BUDGET PURPOSES, YES.
WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT? BUT UH, UH, CAUSE OF THE DEVELOPMENT THAT'S HAPPENING.
OKAY, SO MAYBE WE SEPARATE YOU EXISTING VERSUS YEAH, I DON'T KNOW THAT I'M EXISTING.
HAVE CLEAR OPINION ON THAT? YOU WOULD SEPARATE THAT OUT.
BUT PAUL IN YOU THINK THE DRIFT CONTINUES HIGHER HIRED IF YOU PUT THE TWO TOGETHER.
CHARLIE, YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS? I DON'T SEE HOW THEY CAN GO UP, BUT THEY ARE GOING UP APPARENTLY SO SOMETIMES DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
LET'S JUST PRETEND YOU RUN THE BOARD OF SUPERVISOR AND HAD TO APPROVE A BUDGET.
WHAT
WE INITIALLY DO UH, USE CONSERVATIVE BUDGETING.
AND THEN IF THERE'S A POSITIVE SURPRISES, HOW DO YOU SPEND THE EXTRAS CLOSE THEN WE HAVE TO FIRE, WE HAVE THINGS SPEND THE EXTRA ON.
SO THAT'S ANOTHER POINT TO KEEP IN MIND.
SO BASICALLY AROUND FLAT ALL IN KIND OF COMBINED EXISTING END.
NOBODY KNOWS FOR SURE THIS IS ALL JUST GUESS, BUT SOMEBODY WE HAVE TO YES MA'AM.
[00:25:01]
I THINK FOR THE HOUSING IT'S GONNA GO UP A LITTLE BIT.I DON'T THINK, NOT WHAT IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE YEARS, BUT WE DO HAVE A LOT OF NEW DEVELOPMENT TOO, SO.
SO THAT'LL INCREASE THE OVERALL TOTALS.
SO SLIGHT DRIFT HIGHER OVERALL ALL IN MAYBE A LITTLE DIP IN EXISTING, BUT MORE THAN OFFSET WITH THE, OKAY.
UM, I JUST, IT JUST SEEMS LIKE YOU CAN'T CONTINUE.
SO I THINK I AGREE THAT WE MAY SEE FOR THIS NEXT QUARTER, MAYBE HALF NEXT YEAR, MAYBE SLIGHT INCREASE, BUT I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO COME OUT AGAIN BEFORE IS GOING COME UP.
ALTHOUGH THE THING THAT IS, YOU KNOW, WE JUST SAW SOMETHING COME OUT LAST WEEK THAT THE GUIN IS THE SECOND HIGHEST GROWING COUNTY IN THE COMMONWEALTH.
AND UM, SO THAT'S, THAT'S KIND OF BALANCING PUTTING PRESSURE ON THOSE PRICES BECAUSE MORE PEOPLE ARE WANTING TO COME HERE, WHICH IS, WHICH IS GREAT, BUT IT ALSO IMPACTS THE PRICES FROM BUDGET PERSPECTIVE.
WHEN I MOVED TO VIRGINIA, MY FIRST JOB I MADE $19,500 OF A YEAR.
I MAKE A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT NOW.
UH, BUT UH, I STILL HAVE THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY LEFT OVER EVERY MONTH AND IT JUST BLOWS MY MIND.
HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE? YOU KNOW, I'M MAKING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MONEY, YET I HAVE THE SAME AMOUNT MONEY LEFT OVER EVERY MONTH.
OUR COUNTY CONTINUES TO BRING IN REVENUES.
YOU KNOW, WE STILL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME AMOUNT LEFT OVER EVERY, EVERY YEAR.
SO I, I WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT WE ARE BEING VERY THOUGHTFUL ON WHERE JUST BECAUSE OF WE KIND OF LIKE THE SCHOOLS, JUST CUZ WE CAN DOESN'T MEAN WE SHOULD GROW OUR BUDGETS.
SO KEEPING BUDGETS FLATTER, UM, IS SOMETHING I'M INTERESTED IN BECAUSE I DO THINK, I THINK THINGS ARE GONNA BE VERY DIFFERENT A YEAR FROM NOW ON ALL LEVELS.
DIFFERENT PEOPLE IN THIS ROOM, DIFFERENT ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS, SO, SO EXISTING HOUSING PRICES ARE DOING WHAT?
UH, I THINK A LOT COMING ONLINE.
THERE'S A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT COMING ONLINE.
UM, BUT I THINK THAT WILL START TO SLOW TOO AS WE'LL INTO 20, 24, 25.
SO CONSENSUS ON WHAT I'M HEARING HERE IS UH, PERHAPS A LITTLE DECLINE ON EXISTING, A LITTLE EXTRA ON THE NEW AND FALL IN FLATTISH TO MAYBE A SLIGHT DRIFT TIRE, BUT NOTHING, NOTHING RIGHT ON ABOUT IS THAT PRETTY MUCH WHERE WE'RE WELL YEAH.
TO REMEMBER TOO THAT THE ASSESSMENTS THAT WE'RE DOING NOW, HALF OF THAT IS THE NEXT FISCAL YEAR AND WE ALREADY KNOW THEY'RE UP AS FAR AS YOU KNOW, WHAT'S GONNA BE TAXED.
SO IF YOU'RE LOOKING FROM A BUDGETS PERSPECTIVE, YOU KNOW AT LEAST HALF OF THAT NEXT YEAR IS GOING EIGHT.
SO WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW IS A YEAR FROM NOW NEXT YEAR, YES.
AT LEAST YOU KNOW WHAT THE FIRST HALF, I THINK IT'S SAFE TO ASSUME THAT COMMERCIAL WILL CONTINUE TO GROW FOR GOLAND.
UM, IT'S RESIDENTIAL THAT WE JUST REALLY DON'T HAVE A, IN TERMS OF VALUATIONS OR IN TERMS OF WELL NEW COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS AND VALUATIONS JUST CAUSE IT'S SUCH A GOOD SPOT TO BE, I THINK IT'S COMPETITIVE AREA, BUT RESIDENTIAL, SEEING THE INTEREST RATE SUPPOSED TO LEVEL OUT AT 5%.
I MEAN I DON'T KNOW HOW THAT WILL AFFECT RESIDENTIAL BUYERS.
THEY'RE DIFFERENT THAN THE OTHER.
AND THAT 5% JUST POINT OUT THAT'S NOT BOARD TRADES.
UM, MORTGAGE RATES ARE, YOU KNOW, PRICED OFF OF SEVEN TO 10 YEAR VERSUS THE OVERNIGHT SHORT TERM.
SO THEY'VE GROWN UP AS HIGH AS EIGHT AND I THINK THEY'RE BACK DOWN AROUND SIX TRADES.
SO, BUT IT IS SO IT'S SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE FIVE YEAR SEEING THERE, BUT SO YEAH, WE'VE SEEN THAT AFFECT FOLKS THAT TAKE OUT A MORTGAGE.
NOW LET'S MOVE TO PERSONAL PROPERTY AND VEHICLES, UH, EVALUATIONS GOING UP DOWN IN THE COUNTY EXISTING VERSUS NEW ADDITIONS VALUES ARE GONNA GO DOWN, BUT I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE NUMBER OF CARS, CARS, CARS WE HAVE TODAY.
[00:30:02]
OH, I MEAN WE HAVE 200 TO 300 COMING IN AND OUT EVERY WEEK.SO WITH PEOPLE MOVING IN, VALUES ARE TRENDING DOWN WHEN THE USED VEHICLES, HOWEVER THE NEW VEHICLES VALUES ARE UP.
SO PRICES OF NEW VEHICLES OR NUMBER OF NEW VEHICLES BEING PURCHASED BY GO, THE VALUE OF THE NEW VEHICLES FOR TAXING ARE UP.
LIKE, SO LIKE YOUR 21, 22, 23, THOSE VALUES ARE, BUT YOUR USED VEHICLES ARE DOWN.
AND WE HAVE PROPORTIONALLY MORE USED VEHICLES BY NUMBER WE WE DO.
IT'S NOT WHERE IT WAS IN 20 20, 20 21, BUT IT'S, IT'S COMING DOWN.
WELL I MEAN IT'S GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS, RIGHT? RIGHT.
WE'RE OUT THERE BUYING A VEHICLE AS BAD
WE'VE GOT VEHICLES COMING OUT, WE'VE GOT EVERY POINT OAK KILL ASK ME OPEN, BUT THAT'S COMING REAL QUICK.
THAT'LL BE IN THAT 18 MONTH WINDOW.
AND YOU'VE GOT RE, MARSH AND ALL THE NEW SUBDIVISIONS, YOU'VE GOT MORE VEHICLES COMING OUT.
SO FALL OFF AND OLDER VEHICLES, VERIZON, NEW VEHICLES, ADDITION OF NEW VEHICLES THAT OFFSETS THE, I GUESS THE BULK OF OUR VEHICLES ARE AND THEY'RE THE ONES THEY'RE RECLINING.
SO I THINK THERE'S ENOUGH OF THAT POSITIVE NEWS TO KIND OF BREAK EVEN.
APPRECIATE YOU GOT SOME INSIGHT.
SO, UH, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE? I DO AGREE.
I THINK, I THINK IT WILL GO UP.
SO, CAUSE THE NEW VEHICLE, RIGHT.
VEHICLE TAXES RELATIVE TO UH, REAL ESTATE TAXES, WHAT'S, WHAT ARE PERCENTAGES? UM, REAL ESTATE IS UPPER THIRTIES AND PERSONAL PROPERTY THIS YEAR IS 16 MILLION.
SO IT'S DOUBLE MORE THAN DOUBLE OUR REVENUE NOW.
REAL ESTATE, REAL ESTATE'S OUR MAIN.
REAL REAL ESTATE IS ESTATE REAL ESTATE.
SO, SO I MEAN THAT'S THE WAY I'M VIEWING THE WORLD IS WE'RE KIND OF BUOYED BY REAL ESTATE AND WE JUST NEED TO MAKE SURE WE HAVE THE APPROPRIATE, I MEAN I, YOU KNOW, THE ONE THING ABOUT COMMERCIAL IS THEY CAN PASS PRICES ALONG RESIDENT RESIDENTIAL CANNOT.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, THAT IS SOMETHING WITH A, IF, IF WE ARE CONSIDERING A TIGHT BUDGET, THAT IS A BIG THING TO KEEP IN CONSIDERATION.
AND JUST YOU, YOU MENTIONED EACH PIECES CARLA COMBINED OVER HALF THE BUDGET? YES.
THIS IS WHY WE'RE SPENDING A COUPLE OF MINUTES ON THIS.
SO IT'S WHERE START AND THE STATE SUBSIDY BUT HAVE NO CONTROL OVER THAT SENSE.
CHARLIE, YOU'VE GOT ANYTHING TO ADD OR YOU NO, I'M OKAY.
OKAY,
UM, I GET TWO EMAILS A DAY AND I DO SEE THE PRICES COMING DOWN.
UH, ONE THING I WOULD NOTE THOUGH, IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR A TRUCK, THOSE PRICES SEEM TO BE HOLDING AND YOU HAVE A LOT OF TRUCK DRIVERS FOR PEOPLE DRIVE TRUCKS IN THIS COUNTY.
SO, UM, THEY DON'T SEEM TO COMING DOWN NEAR THIS QUICK CAUSE OBVIOUSLY I'M LOOKING FOR A TRUCK SO SWITCH DOWN.
BUT UM, I DO SEE THAT THEY ARE COMING DOWN A LITTLE BIT.
SO, BUT I THINK THE OFF FROM A REVENUE PERSPECTIVE, I THINK ALL THE OFFSET, ALL THE STUFF WE GOT COMING ONLINE IS OFFSET THOSE PRICES, ESPECIALLY IF YOU START SIX MONTHS FROM NOW AND THINK ABOUT WON'T BE COMING ONLINE DURING THAT NEXT 12 MONTHS.
SO LIKE FROM 12 TO 18, MOTEL 12 TO FOUR.
SO YOU THINK THAT'LL OFFSET IT.
SO BASICALLY THE, THE CLIENT WILL BE OFFSET WITH THE NEW AND KIND.
SAME THING IN REAL ESTATE DRIFT VEHICLE WHEN YOU BUY THAT BIG TRUCK.
WE CAN ADD THAT TO THE BUDGET LINE ON ABSOLUTELY
UH, AND THAT'S OVER HALF OF THE, THE BUDGET.
UM, MOST OF THE REST OF IT IS EITHER PASSED THROUGH OR FROM THE STATE AND UH, UH, YOU
[00:35:01]
KNOW, BUSINESS LICENSE AND UH, MECHANICS.THAT'S REALLY A FEW PERCENT BUT IT'S NOT.
UM, ANY OTHER THOUGHTS ON TAX REVENUES? THE OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING? NOTHING.
THIS IS ALL VERY HELPFUL BY THE WAY.
IT UH, CUZ IT, IT HELPS WITH FORM A CONSENSUS FOR THE COUNTY, UM, WHAT THE RESOURCES BE AVAILABLE RESOURCES WE HAVE BEFORE WE START TO ALLOCATE THOSE RESOURCES AGAINST.
CAUSE CAPITAL IS AEM THAT NEEDS TO BE ALLOCATED AND ACCORDING TO PRIORITIES.
SO ONCE WE KNOW HOW MUCH WE KIND HAVE TO START WITH, YOU CAN BEGIN THAT PROCESS OF ALLOCATION AND THEN WHEN YOU RUN OUT, YOU RUN OUT.
IT'S KINDA, MOST PEOPLE AT THE END OF THE MONTH MAYBE HAVE A LITTLE MONEY LEFT OVER, BUT SOME PEOPLE HAVE A LITTLE MONTH AT THE END OF MONEY, SO WANNA MAKE SURE THAT YOU DON'T HAVE LEFT OVER.
I'M F****D UP WITH HIM OR MONEY, SO.
ALRIGHT, WELL THANK YOU FOR THAT.
UM, I'M GONNA GO AHEAD AND SINCE WE HAVE UH, SOME FOLKS THAT ARE LISTENING IN, JUST GO AROUND THE ROOM AND SEE IF THERE'S ANYTHING WE JUST TALKED ABOUT.
UM, DO YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON HOW WE SHOULD BUILD THIS BUDGET GOING FORWARD OTHER THAN MORE MONEY FOR SCHOOLS? I, I THINK THE, UM, THE JOBS REPORT CAUGHT A LOT OF THE CAUSE BY SURPRISE DID CLASS FRIDAY AND SO I THINK THEY'RE RETHINKING THEIR MODELS.
AND SO I'D BE INTERESTING TO SEE IN THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS, YOU KNOW, SORT HOW, HOW WE'RE THINKING ABOUT THE, WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN TO THESE, WHAT KINDA ABSENCE.
YEAH, IT'S ANYBODY'S DESK AT THIS POINT, IT'S IN FRONT.
THERE'S NO REAL ONE RIGHT ANSWER.
SO YEAH, I THINK HERE DECEMBER REPORT IS RIGHT ON WHERE PEOPLE WERE UP UNTIL FRIDAY AND NOW EVERYBODY'S LIKE, I DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN NOW.
UM, AND ON THAT, ON THAT SUBJECT, UM, SOMEWHERE I SAW THAT THE TERM USED UH, AN ACCORDION BUDGET.
SO YOU PASS A BUDGET AND IF THE REALITY IS DIFFERENT, YOU EITHER CONTRACT OR EXPAND KIND OF, YOU KNOW, CALL AN AUDIBLE ON THE LINE.
ONCE YOU SEE WHAT THE DEFENSE IS DOING, YOU KINDA SAY, OKAY, THIS IS OUR, OUR BEST THINKING NOW ABOUT THE NEXT 18 MONTHS, BUT AS THE ACTUALS COME IN YOU HAVE ADOPT OR ADJUST.
SO AS WE GO THROUGH THE BUDGET PROCESS, IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL FOR FOLKS TO THINK, IF I HAD ONE LESS DOLLAR, HOW WOULD I HANDLE THAT? IF I HAD ONE MORE DOWN, HOW WOULD I HANDLE THAT? BECAUSE IT MAY TURN OUT THERE'S A RANGE OF OUTCOMES THEY CALL A CODE, A CODE OF PROJECTIONS THAT WE HAVE A BUDGET AND THEN THERE'S A CODE AROUND THAT OF ACTUAL.
SO IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL TO THINK ABOUT AN ACCORDION TYPE CONCEPT AND BUDGETING.
I'LL JUST, JUST SAVE MORE MONEY FOR SCHOOLS.
SO YOU GET THAT OUT FAST THOUGH, AS A FORMER SCHOOL BOARD MEMBER, RIGHT? YEAH, SO, UM, JUST ANECDOTALLY, UM, I'VE SEEN INTEREST RATES SOLVE A LITTLE BIT.
WE DID REAL ESTATE CLOSINGS AND SO THEY WERE SPIKING, BUT ACTUALLY WE'VE DONE SOME CLOSINGS IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO WHERE THE RATES ARE COMING DOWN AND LOAN OFFICERS ARE TELLING, I'M THINKING CASES OF YOUNGER COUPLES BUYING THEIR FIRST HOME AND THEY'RE LOOKING AT THE, AND THEY HAVE PMMI, PRIVATE MORTGAGE, PMMI CAUSE THEY'RE NOT ENOUGH DOWN.
SO YOU START SIT DOWN USUALLY WHEN I'M DOING A CLOSING AND TALK TO THEM ABOUT HOW YOU GET OUTTA THAT PMI AND THE ANSWER IS REFI.
AND SO THEY'VE ALREADY TALKED TO LOAN OFFICERS AND SAY, WE'VE ALREADY TALKED ABOUT THAT.
SO THEY SAY IN, IN A YEAR AND A HALF TO TWO YEARS, COME BACK AND LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, LIKE A NO COST REFI.
SO THAT'S WHAT THE LOAN OFFICERS ARE TELLING SOME OF THE YOUNGER COUPLES THAT ARE BUYING HOMES IS, YOU KNOW, THE INTEREST RATE MIGHT, OF COURSE WE ALL REMEMBER, I REMEMBER WHEN, YOU KNOW, WE WERE GETTING CLOSINGS AT 12%.
BUT UM, SO YOU KNOW, LIKE YOU'RE AT FIVE SOMETHING YOU, THIS IS, THIS IS NOT THAT BAD.
BUT AGAIN, THE MESSAGE, WHAT I'M SEEING ANECDOTAL IS FOLKS ARE SAYING, YOU KNOW, AND WITHIN A FEW YEARS YOU MIGHT LOOK AT LIKE A NO COST REFI AND IF YOU VALUE HAS CLIMBED, YOU'LL GET RID OF THAT, YOU KNOW, PMI COMPONENT.
ANECDOTALLY, GOOD, THANK YOU THAT, THAT RAISES ANOTHER POINT, WHICH IS NOTHING LASTS FOREVER EITHER CRUDE OR BAD.
AND WE'RE SEEING RATES CLIMB AND THE ECONOMY SLOWING THAT WON'T LAST FOREVER.
AND IF IT LASTS THREE QUARTERS, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT LOOKING 18 MONTHS NOW THAT'S SIX QUARTERS FROM NOW, RIGHT? AND IF IT LASTS THREE, WE'RE GONNA, WE MAY VERY WELL BY THE END OF OUR FISCAL 24 BUDGET HAVE RUN THROUGH THE RECESSION OUT THE OTHER SIDE.
AND, AND IF AND WHEN THAT DOES HAPPEN AND THE FEDERAL RESERVES, UM, RAISES RATES NOW LEAVES 'EM THERE FOR A YEAR OR SO, UM, THE FED DOES WHAT THEY CALL DOT PLOTS WHERE THEY TELL YOU THIS IS WHERE WE THINK INTEREST RATES ARE HEADED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE YEARS.
AND TWO YEARS FROM NOW THEY HAVEN'T BEEN DOT
[00:40:01]
PLOTS.THEY HAVE TO HAVE INTEREST RATES COMING BACK DOWN ONCE INFLATION'S UNDER CONTROL 2% LOWERING INTEREST RATES AGAIN.
SO THERE IS TO YOUR POINT, YOU KNOW, BEGIN, START TO THINK ABOUT THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS WHOLE THING WHERE THINGS DO START TO NORMALIZE.
THE RATES DO COME BACK DOWN AND BY THEN GES WILL BE FINISHED AND WE'LL BE LOOKING AT DOING ANOTHER BOND ISSUE AND RAISING MORE MONEY THAN 2% INSTEAD OF FIVE OR SIX, UH, TO DO OUR, OUR NEXT PROJECTS.
SO THANK YOU FOR THAT PERSPECTIVE.
I'M NOT TRYING TO DEL TOO DEEP THE ECONOMIC THEORY, BUT IT, IT SEEMS LIKE YOU LOWER INTEREST RATES, PEOPLE CONSERVE CAPITAL, YOU'VE RAISED INTEREST RATES, PEOPLE CAN CONSERVE, UH, YOU KNOW, THEY FIND IT, THEY, THEY DIDN'T MOVE IT TO SAVINGS.
SO WE GET THIS INFLUX, I SURE IT'S LIKE GONNA BE A COUNTY THAT'S RECEPTIVE TO THE RIGHT GROWTH AT THAT TIME BECAUSE YOU'LL SEE THE SPIGOT OPEN.
WE DON'T, WE DON'T, WE DON'T HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL, BUT 18 TO 24 MONTHS FROM NOW WE CAN SEE A SITUATION WHERE HIGH INTEREST RATE POLICY HAS LED TO PEOPLE STORING CASH AND AMERICANS ARE AMERICANS AND THEY LIKE TO SPEND IT.
UM, SO IT'S, IT'S JUST THAT, THAT'S VERY THEORETICAL BUT I THINK WE'VE SEEN IT ENOUGH CYCLES OF IT IN THE PAST.
WHEN UH, INTEREST RATES GO UP, IT ATTRACTS, UH, DEPOSITS AND SAVINGS BECAUSE IF YOU GET 5%, ONE NOT SAVED, IF YOU GET 0%, WHY NOT SPEND? SO RIGHT NOW THEY'RE ENCOURAGING SAVINGS BY JACKING INTEREST RATES UP AND PEOPLE ARE SAYING, HEY, I CAN, FOR THE FIRST TIME I CAN ACTUALLY GET INTEREST INCOME FROM CASH.
AND WHICH BRINGS UP ANOTHER POINT.
UH, ONE OF THE COMPONENTS OF OUR BUDGET IS INTEREST INCOME, WHICH WE HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESERVES, WHICH IS A GOOD THING AND HAS TO HELP US GET THE TRIPLE A.
AND FOR YEARS HAS BEEN A CARING COST BECAUSE IT DIDN'T EARN ANYTHING.
WELL NOW IT'S STARTING TO EARN SOME, UH, SOME INTEREST INCOME.
UM, SO OUR SAVINGS IS, YOU KNOW, CASH IS NO LONGER TRASH, UH, CASH IS ACTUALLY SOMETHING THAT CAN GENERATE DECENT RETURNS.
NEIL, NEIL TOUCHED ON SO EARLIER ABOUT THE ARTICLE ABOUT THE GROWTH AND I WAS ON A CONFERENCE ONLINE MEETING WITH UM, A COUPLE FOLKS FROM CHAMBER RBA AND, AND OUR DIRECTOR OF TRANSPORTATION WITH TPO AS WE PLANNED THE TRANSPORTATION FORUM AND DOWN MARCH CALENDARS FOR TRANSPORTATION.
THE CHAMBER IS GOING TO JOIN US IN PARTNERS BEFORE THEY GO UNDER KANSAS CITY, INNER CITY, KANSAS CITY TRIP IN BAY.
BUT LISTENING TO THE HEAD OF THE CHAMBER, UM, TALK ABOUT THE REGION.
SO SOMETIMES WHEN I LOOK AT THIS, IF LIKE LOOK AT NATIONAL TRENDS, BUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT OUR HOUSING AND OUR VEHICLES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE VALID, BUT CERTAINLY HOUSING IS IS VERY REGIONAL.
UM, FOLKS ARE MOVING FROM NORMAL'S AGENDA.
UM, AND THAT'S, THAT'S WHAT THE CITY COUNCIL FOLKS, WHEN, WHEN I SEE ALL THIS BUILDING GOING ON IN RICHMOND AND I ASK THE CITY COUNCIL MEMBERS WHERE, WHERE, WHERE ARE, WHERE'S YOUR INFORMATION TELLING YOU PEOPLE COMING FROM, ESPECIALLY NORTH, YOU KNOW, NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK, BUT ALSO FROM THE DC AREA AND I HAVE A BROTHER LAW IN LOUD WAS TELLING THE SORTS OF FOLKS AND HIS, HE'S HERE AND ALL SORTS OF FOLKS IN HIS NEIGHBORHOOD THAT ARE LEAVING AND COMING TO RICHMOND.
SO RICHMOND IS, THE REGION IS ATTRACTIVE AND UM, THAT LED TO DISCUSSIONS WITH THE CHAMBER PERSON WAS SAYING THE TRANSPORTATION COMPONENT OF IT IS, IS AND THE CBTA MONEY, THE NEXT BOARD WE CURRENTLY IN THE NEXT FOUR IS GOING TO HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WORK ON A REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION COMPONENT.
CAUSE HE WAS TALKING ABOUT, YOU LOOK AT NASHVILLE, YOU LOOK AT ATLANTA, THE, THOSE CITIES HAVE GROWN CRAZY AND THEIR TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS HAVEN'T KEPT UP WITH IT.
SO IF WE MANAGE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION, I THINK THE THE GROWTH IS WIDE OPEN POTENTIALLY.
AND THAT'S GONNA MEAN I THINK DEMAND CONTINUED HOUSING DEMAND IN IN THE G AREA, WHICH IS ALREADY ATTRACTIVE AND IT'S GONNA CONTINUE TO BE ATTRACTIVE AND NOT MEAN.
IT SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT GUC, I GUESS IF EVERYONE WANTS TO COME HERE AS OPPOSED TO LEAVE SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT USM.
IT SAYS WE'VE GOT EXCELLENT SCHOOLS.
SO, UH, BUT UH, YEAH THERE IS THAT TREND OF UM, AND WE NEED TO, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID THIS BEFORE, BUT YOU KNOW, THE FINANCIALS SHOULD, YOU KNOW, HELP THE COUNTY GROW GRACEFULLY AND HAVE THE SERVICES KEEP PACE WITH THAT GROWTH SO THERE'S NO CONSIDERATION QUALITY AND THAT'S PART OF THE ALLOCATION PROCESS.
WE TALKED ABOUT LIMITED AMOUNT OF CAPITAL.
HOW DO WE PRIORITIZE AND MAKE SURE THAT WE DON'T HAVE ANY GAPS IN SERVICE AND UH, LEVEL OF SERVICE DROP CRYSTAL, UH, THIS IS NOT MEANT TO PUT
[00:45:01]
ANYBODY ON THE SPOT.IF YOU HAVE, IF YOU WANT TO PASS LEFT, YOU CAN JUST SAY
THANK FOR THAT BECAUSE I WILL PASS.
THIS NOT PUTTING ANYBODY ON THE SPOT HERE, REALLY, WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO WORK WITH MR. CARPENTER STAFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THAT 5 24 BUDGET.
I PRESENTED A BALANCE BUDGET TO THE SCHOOL BOARD FOR THEIR CONSIDERATION.
WE'RE LOOKING AT A, A DECREASE IN STATE REVENUE BASED ON THE CLERICAL AREA AT THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION AT ABOUT HUNDRED $23,000.
SO WE'RE WORKING THROUGH THAT RIGHT NOW, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH STAFF AS YOU GET NEW DATA AND PRESENT A BALANCED BUDGET TO THE SUPERVISORS FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION IN COMING WEEKS.
WELL THAT IS ONE OF THE SPECIAL THINGS ABOUT GROUPS, THE WAY THAT THE TWO BOARDS AND THE COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR, DISTRICT SUPERINTENDENT WORK TOGETHER.
THIS IS, YOU KNOW, WE'RE IN THIS TOGETHER, WE HAVE TO SOLVE PROBLEMS TOGETHER.
COMING TOGETHER IS THE BEST WAY TO SOLVE PROBLEM.
YES MAAM, I CAN DITO
AND WE, WE REALLY DO APPRECIATE THE WORKING RELATIONSHIP THAT WE HAVE AND WE DO AS WELL.
THANK YOU THAT, JONATHAN, YOU NEVER HAVE ANYTHING TO SAY ACTUALLY, THIS IS SUCH A CORNUCOPIA OF GOOD NEWS.
I THINK THE CHALLENGE IS COMMUNICATING WITH THE COMMUNITY.
UH, AND AGAIN, THIS IS WHAT I USED TO CALL RESEARCH, NOT RESEARCH, BUT CONVERSATIONS I'VE HAD IN THE LAST WEEK OR TWO SINCE THE ASSESSMENTS CAME OUT IS PEOPLE FEEL OVER TAPPED.
WHY CAN'T THEY CUT MY, YOU KNOW, MY TAX RATE? AND I THINK THERE HAVE BEEN STRONG REASONS WHY, UH, I ACTUALLY WROTE DOWN RECURRING EXPENSES WITH RECURRING REVENUES.
UH, THE, THE EXPENSES HAVE ALSO GONE UP.
SO THE CHALLENGE I THINK FOR THE BOARD, THE ADMINISTRATION, ALL OF US WHO ARE SOMEWHAT ENGAGED IS TO, I HATE TO USE THE WORD EDUCATE, INFORM MAYBE IS A BETTER WORD, UH, FOLKS, AS TO WHY THERE IS NOT A REDUCTION IN THE RATE FROM 53 TO 52 OR, OR WHATEVER THE FLAT TAX RATE WOULD BE BECAUSE, UH, WE ARE A GROWING COUNTY AND, UH, YOU CAN'T GET 30 POUNDS INTO A 25 POUND SACK.
I MEAN, I'VE HAD CONVERSATIONS WITH FOLKS AS TO THE NEED FOR INCREASED STAFFING AND WE HAVE SOME FOLKS AT MONICA WHO SAY WE LOVE OUR JOB, BUT IT'S NOT, NOT A HOBBY.
YOU KNOW, WE WANT TO GET FAIRLY COMPENSATED FOR IT.
SO THERE, THERE'S A LOT OF DYNAMICS INVOLVED, BUT YES, I THINK THERE IS A HUGE LEGACY THAT THIS AND PREVIOUS BOARDS ARE GONNA PASS ON TO FUTURE BOARDS AND MAINTAINING THAT IS, I DON'T WANNA CALL IT A HEAVY LIFT, BUT IT'S NOT JUST, IT'S NOT PERPETUAL MOTION.
IT'S GOING TO TAKE WORK ATTENTION AND, AND INVESTMENT OF TIME AND, AND, UH, DIG IT INTO THE DETAILS.
GETTING BEHIND THE CURTAIN, SO TO SPEAK.
SO PERSONALLY, I AM HUGELY APPRECIATIVE OF WHAT IS BEING DISCUSSED HERE TODAY, BUT I ALSO WOULD COUNSEL THAT GOOD NEWS NEEDS TO BE, YOU KNOW, ESPOUSED AND EVANGELIZED THAT FOLKS NEED TO APPRECIATE THAT.
UM, RESEARCH, UH, 17% INCREASE IN MY ASSESSMENT LAST YEAR.
UH, I THINK THAT THE REVENUE STREAM WILL INCREASE AND YOU CAN MEASURE IT TWO WAYS.
IF YOU TAKE OUT WHAT THEY CALL NEW STORE GROWTH.
IF WE ARE A RETAILER AND JUST LOOKED AT EXISTING STORES, UM, WE WOULD SEE AN INCREASE.
BUT THEN YOU PUT ON THE NEW STORES, NEW RESIDENTS, NEW BUSINESSES, YOU KNOW, THE PIE IS GETTING BIGGER, BUT SO ARE THE EXPENSES.
AND, AND SO YOU CAN'T KEEP SERVICING A GROWING COUNTY WITH THE SAME NUMBER OF FIRE STATIONS OR THE SAME NUMBER OF 60 YEAR OLD SCHOOLS.
UH, YOU'RE GOING TO NEED MORE STAFF AND, UH, THERE'S A BALANCE.
JEFF, CAN YOU RAISE SEVERAL GOOD, GOOD POINTS.
UM, WHAT IS THE COMMUNICATION THAT WE OUGHT TO INFORM THE SYSTEM? SO THE NEXT 30 DAYS, I'M MUST SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE AT LEAST THREE TOWN HALLS AND TAKE THE BUDGET OUT.
WE ALREADY HAVE, UM, UH, WE HAVE THE NEXT 30 DAYS, WE HAVE THREE TOWN HALLS WHERE WE TAKE THE GOVERNMENT OUT IN THE CITIZENS AND WE SHARE THE BUDGET WHILE STILL IN DRAFT FORM AND SAY, THIS IS WHAT WE'RE THINKING, YOU TELL US THIS IS WHERE YOU WANT YOUR TAX DOLLARS SPEND OR NOT, IT'S THEIR TAX DOLLARS.
AND THEN THEY'LL LET US KNOW YOU PROVIDE SOME FEEDBACK.
NOW AS FAR AS TAX RATES, ARE THEY TOO HIGH, TOO LOW? WHATEVER WE DO BENCHMARK.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES, I THINK WE'RE 20% BELOW THE NEXT LOWEST TAX RATE FOR RESIDENTIAL END QUARTER HERE, BROTHER.
SO WE'RE WE ALWAYS BENCH WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE NOT OUTTA LINE AND THAT OUR TAX RATES ARE COMPETITIVE IF NOT THE LOWEST IN THE REGION, WHICH THEY ARE.
[00:50:01]
UM, AND I GUESS CONFIRMATION THAT IS THE FACT THAT LOT FOLKS WANNA MOVE HERE.THEY WOULDN'T MOVE HERE IF THEY FELT LIKE THE TAXES WERE, YOU KNOW, JUST ABSURD.
SO ANYWAY, WE LOOK AT THOSE DIFFERENT THINGS, BUT, BUT TO YOUR POINT, HOW TO THE CITIZENS GET SOME INPUT, LET THEM TELL US IS THIS THE RIGHT THING TO DO AND, AND SHARE WITH THEM THE EXPENSE PRESSURES THAT GO WITH THOSE REVENUE INCREASES AND HOW WE'RE MAKING THOSE TWO HEADS MEET, UM, WITH THE BUDGET THAT WE HAVE.
YOU MADE A NUMBER OF GOOD POINTS THERE.
UH, UH, MAKE SURE WE DON'T RED LIGHT
YES, SANDY, UH, UH, JUST TO AGAIN, TO THANK ALL OF YOU FOR PARTICIPATING IN THIS VERY CAREFUL, THOUGHTFUL PROCESS AND NOT JUST RUBBER STAMPING AND SAYING, OKAY, THIS MUCH FOR THIS AND THIS MUCH FOR THAT GO AWAY AND, AND BEING RECEPTIVE TO CITIZEN INPUT.
I THINK THAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT.
AND AND AGAIN, COMMENDING ALL OF YOU FOR THE CORDIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SCHOOLS AND THE SUPERVISORS, I THINK THAT CANNOT BE OVERESTIMATED.
BUT, UM, YOU'RE, YOU'RE RIGHT.
SO MANY, UH, GOVERNMENTS START WITH THE EXPENSES.
THIS IS WHAT WE WANT TO SPEND AND THEN FIGURE OUT HOW DO YOU GET IT? AND A LOT OF TIMES IT'S NOT AS, UH, STRUCTURALLY BALANCED BUDGET THAT GETS YOU THERE.
A LOT OF TIMES IT'S A BALANCED BUDGET, BUT LIKE THE STATE CODE REQUIRES A BALANCED BUDGET, BUT IT DOESN'T SAY YOU CAN'T BORROW OR DIP INTO RESERVES OR TO BALANCE THE BUDGET.
IT, IT SAYS THAT'S A BALANCE, BUT DOESN'T TELL YOU HOW YOU GET THERE.
IT DOESN'T HAVE A STRUCTURALLY REQUIRED BALANCE BUDGET.
SO YOU'RE RIGHT, A LOT OF FOLKS START WITH HERE'S WHAT WE WANNA SPEND, THEN WE FIGURE OUT HOW TO GET THE MONEY.
DO WE HAVE TO RAISE TAXES TO GET IT? DO WE HAVE TO DRAIN THE RESERVES? WE DON'T START THAT WAY IN GOOD.
SO WE START WITH, OKAY, WHAT ARE THE ASSESSMENTS TIMES THE TAX RATES WHICH ARE BENCHMARKED TO BE FAVORABLE? AND THEN THAT'S WHAT YOU HAVE TO WORK WITH.
AND THEN YOU, UH, WORK WITHIN THAT AND ALLOCATE PRIORITIES ACCORDING TO PRIORITIES.
AND UH, UNFORTUNATELY THAT MEANS WE DON'T GET EVERYTHING DONE TO EVERYONE WOULD WANT EVERY YEAR, BUT IT'S A FISCAL RESPONSIBLE WAY TO KEEP THE COUNTY ON EVEN KEEL.
SO, SO THANK YOU FOR THAT, SANDY.
JUST TO BLEND WITH JONATHAN, SANDY MENTIONED, I DO THINK WHEN PART OF TRANSPARENCY IS WE DO HAVE TO HAVE THE TOUGH CONVERSATIONS WITH CONSTITUENTS AND BE ABLE TO SAY, YES, YOU WANT LOWER TAX RATES, BUT I WANT TO BE ABLE TO SAY WE HAVE FIRST IN CLASS SERVICES.
I ALWAYS WANT TO BE ABLE TO SAY THAT FOR OUR COUNTY.
SO IT'S TOUGH CONVERSATIONS, IT'S NOT FUN CONVERSATIONS, BUT I I IN THREE MONTHS HAVE SEEN, WE ASK MORE THOUGHTFUL QUESTIONS AS A LEADERSHIP, WE DIG IN, WE WORK WITH ADMINISTRATION FAR MORE.
MAYBE THAT'S A MESSAGING WE CAN GET IS HOW MUCH WE WORK WITH ADMINISTRATION, UM, TO TRY AND ACCOMPLISH THESE GOALS.
BUT, UM, YOU KNOW, I, BECAUSE I I'VE ALREADY FIELDED THE QUESTIONS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OF WHY ARE MY TAXES LIKE THIS? AND I, RIGHT NOW IT'S VERY EASY, YOU KNOW, SCHOOLS, COURTHOUSE, FIRE STATION, I MEAN THOSE ARE, THOSE ARE, AND UM, AND, AND WE NEED TO HAVE ENOUGH AND WE NEED TO GET THE RIGHT GROWTH, BUT I JUST, UM, I PUSH LEADERSHIP AND I COMMEND LEADERSHIP AT THE SAME TIME TO CONTINUE DOING IT.
UM, SORRY, I PUSHED TO CONTINUE DOING IT AND I COMMEND FOR WHAT WE'VE DONE, JUST NOT SHIRKING THE QUESTIONS, BEING VERY UPFRONT AND SAYING THIS IS, WE GET WHAT WE PAY FOR AND WE'VE GOTTA DO IT IN A VERY THOUGHTFUL MANNER.
AND UM, AND IT'S NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST LOWER MY TAX RATE AND LOWER MY ASSESSMENT.
IT'S BOTH SIDES OF THE LEDGER.
SO JUST MAYBE HEAR FROM THE, HE'S TAKING MENTAL NOTES.
UM, UH, AS I LISTEN TO EVERYONE AND THE PERSPECTIVE THAT NORMAL PEOPLE Y'ALL HAVE IS YOUR LIFE, YOUR JOB, THE WORLD YOU LIVE IN.
PERSPECTIVE THAT WE HAVE TO HAVE IS OUR ENVIRONMENT.
IT'S NOT NECESSARILY THE WORLD WE LIVE IN AS THE WORLD WE INTERACT WITH.
WHEN, WHEN WE LOOK AT STATISTICS AND SAY, YOU KNOW, VIRGINIA, THE GROSS RATE IS BLANK PERCENT OR, OR THIS IS HAPPENING, WE'RE NOT THE NORM IN GUEN COUNTY.
THAT'S ONE OF THE IMPORTANT THINGS AS WE TALK ABOUT PEOPLE MOVING INTO GOLAND, THE AVERAGE PERSON MOVING INTO GOLAND IS NOT THE SAME PERSON IS MOVING INTO POWER OR THE SAME PERSON MOVING INTO RICHMOND.
IT'S TOTALLY A DIFFERENT KIND OF A PERSON THAT BRINGS WITH THEM DIFFERENT ASSETS, DIFFERENT EXPECTATIONS.
AND, AND SO AS WE LOOK AT BUDGETS, WE HAVE TO TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION, WHICH IS WHY AS WE STARTED INTO THIS BUDGET PROCESS AND WE'RE LOOKING AT IT,
[00:55:01]
THERE ARE EXPECTATIONS THAT WE HAD INTERNALLY OF WHAT WE WERE GONNA FIND WON'T BE SURPRISED THAT GSOM DOESN'T FIT THE NORM.THE, THE THE GLAND IS, YOU KNOW, IT'S THE GOLAND WAY, YOU KNOW.
AND SO THINGS HAPPEN HERE IN, IN, IN THE MANNER BASED UPON THE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GLAND.
SO AS WE'RE LOOKING TO BUILD THIS BUDGET, THERE'S, THERE'S STRONG EXPECTATIONS OF WHAT WE DO WITH OUR MONEY AND THERE'S A, A VERY STRONG COMMITMENT TO PUBLIC SAFETY.
THIS COMMUNITY, WHICH WE'VE SEEN GOING BACK FIVE YEARS, THE AMOUNT OF INVESTMENT WE HAVE MADE IN PUBLIC SAFETY IS TRULY INSPIRING.
UM, AND IT'S SIGNIFICANT WHAT WE HAVE PUT IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS AND CONTINUE TO DO SO.
UH, BUT THAT'S BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE CAN'T, THAT THAT VALUES GO UP CAUSE PEOPLE WANT TO MOVE HERE AS WE'RE.
THE SECOND IS, IS MR POINTED OUT WHAT THE SECOND FASTEST GROWING COUNTY IN THIS REGION, BUT THE FASTEST GROWING COUNTY IS NOT ATTRACTING THE SAME DEMOGRAPHICS THAT WE ARE.
SO WE'RE NOT ONLY GROWING FAST EVERYBODY ELSE, BUT WE'RE ATTRACTING A LEVEL OF DEMOGRAPHICS THAT CAN AFFORD HOUSES THAT ARE, THE AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE WAS WHAT, 500 AND SOME THOUSAND DOLLARS, UM, COMING IN.
SO WE'RE, WE'RE GROWING FASTER AND WE'RE BRINGING IN A, A LEVEL OF, OF RESOURCES AND EXPECTATIONS THAT TURNED INTO A BUDGET THAT AS, AS MS KIP WAS SAYING, UM, IT'S A STRONG BUDGET AND THOUGH WE WE WENT INTO IT EXPECTING THAT WE WERE PROBABLY GONNA BE A LOT TIGHTER WITH RESOURCES VERSUS EXPENSES.
UH, WE STILL LOOK AT, AT A STRONG GROWTH DYNAMIC HERE WE'RE LOOKING AT THE COMMERCIAL GROWTH THAT WAS MENTIONED.
I THINK YOU WILL BE SEEING IN THE NEXT TWO, THREE YEARS MORE COMMERCIAL GROWTH IN CHEN COUNTY AS PEOPLE BEGIN TO INVEST HERE COMMERCIALLY THAT WE MAYBE HAVEN'T SEEN THE PREVIOUS SEVEN, EIGHT YEARS.
IT WAS ALL GOING IN SHORT PUMP OR WHAT HAVE YOU.
IT'S SPILLING OVER NOW INTO OUR EASTERN END.
AND, AND YOU CAN SEE THAT IN THE PERMITS, THE APPLICATIONS, UH, WHAT, WHAT IS BEING DISCUSSED, UH, WHAT'S COMING IN IS JUST, JUST REQUEST FOR INFORMATION.
SO YOU'LL SEE A GROWTH IN THE COMMERCIAL SIDE THAT WE MAYBE HAVEN'T SEEN.
UH, CERTAINLY AS WE LOOK AT SOME OF THESE LARGE DEVELOPMENTS LIKE
NEW APARTMENT COMPLEX APARTMENT COMPLEXES USED TO BE FOUR OR 5 MILLION FOR A COMPLEX, AND NOW APARTMENT COMPLEX IS 130 MILLION.
YOU KNOW, YOU ADD ONE OF THOSE AND, AND YOU SEE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE BOTTOM LINE OF THE CANDIDATE'S BUDGET.
SO AS, AS WE'RE LOOKING AND WE'RE TRYING TO ANTICIPATE THE IMPACT OF A RECESSION, YOU KNOW, MOST RECESSIONS AND, AND I'M NOT IN A COMMON, SO, SO, SO PLEASE, UH, IF I START SPEAKING
AND WE TEND TO HAVE MORE OF THOSE PEOPLE THAN OTHER COUNTIES.
SO AS WE DO ENTER RECESSION, I THINK IT'S FAIR TO SAY THAT WE WILL BE SOMEWHAT BUFFERED FROM THAT ASPECT OF IT.
SO AS CARL AND I HAVE BEEN WORKING ON THIS BUDGET, YOU KNOW, WE WENT INTO IT EXPECTING VERY TIGHT BUDGET AND IN FACT, FIRST THING I TOLD SUPERINTENDENT WAS EXPECTING A GROWTH AT ALL.
YOU KNOW, THE BUDGET THAT WE'RE WORKING ON IS GONNA HAVE ZERO GROWTH IN IT EXCEPT WHAT, WHAT WE'RE REQUIRED TO GROW BY BUT THEN IS A REALITY OF, OF WHAT THE COMMUNITY IS CAME IN THAT WE WERE ABLE TO START CONSIDERING SOME, SOME OTHER ASPECTS OF IT.
UM, THE WORD CONSERVATIVE IS SOMETHING THAT IS USED CONSTANTLY, WHICH IS FUNDAMENTAL TO WHO WE ARE AS MANAGERS OF, OF CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES AND CONSERVATIVE EXPECTATIONS.
AND SO THAT'S WHAT THE BUDGET OF THE WILL BE PRESENTING SHOWS.
UM, IT, IT'S GONNA SHOW THE FACT THAT IN ORDER TO KEEP EMPLOYEES, WE'RE, WE'RE HAVING TO REALIZE THAT INFLATION IS GOING UP 7%, SO WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO USE SOMETHING TO, TO KEEP THEM SO THEY DON'T GO LOOKING TO HENRICO OR LOOKING TO HAND OVER OTHER PLACES IN ORDER TO, UM, YOU KNOW, FEED AND CLOTHE THEIR FAMILIES.
SO IT'S GONNA BE A BUDGET THAT DOES HAVE THOSE EXPECTATIONS TO IT, BUT IT'S ALSO A BUDGET THAT WAS ABLE TO, TO ABSORB THE BUILDING OF AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL THAT DESPITE OUR BEST EFFORTS WAS MORE THAN WE HAD ANTICIPATED OR WANTED IT TO COST.
WE'RE ABLE TO ABSORB THAT WITHIN THE BUDGET AND WE'RE ABLE TO MAKE IT HAPPEN CUZ OF GOOD CONSERVATIVE FUNDAMENTAL BUDGETING IN PREVIOUS YEARS AND WHERE WE'RE GOING.
SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS, IS THANKFULLY THAT, THAT THIS, THIS COMMUNITY HAS GOT THE ABILITY TO, TO WEATHER A RECESSION BETTER THAN MANY.
UM, WE, WE, WE DON'T HAVE A, A DEPENDENT ECONOMY THAT IS BASED ON THE GOVERNMENT, YOU KNOW, AND WASHINGTON SHUTS DOWN.
THAT REALLY HURTS PEOPLE AROUND THERE WHEN THEY GO THROUGH A BUDGET, YOU KNOW, SEQUESTRATION OR WHATEVER GOES ON WITH THAT.
UM, WE'RE NOT, YOU KNOW, A SEASONAL ECONOMY LIKE BEACH AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHERE WHEN WINTER HITS, EVERYONE GOES HOME AND THEN THEY, SO WE'RE BETTER ABLE TO WITHSTAND THOSE KINDS OF ASPECTS OF, OF A RECESSION WHEN IT DOES HIT.
AND, AND, AND SO, YOU KNOW, OUR HIGHS MAYBE AREN'T AS HIGH, BUT OUR LOWS AREN'T AS LOW.
WE'RE MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF IT.
SO AS WE ANTICIPATE WHERE WE'RE GOING, YOU KNOW, WE'RE IN A POSITION TO FEEL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE NOW, I THINK, YOU KNOW, POINTED OUT, OKAY, BUT WHAT ABOUT 20, YOU KNOW, 24 MONTHS FROM NOW, WHERE ARE WE GONNA BE?
[01:00:01]
YOU KNOW, AGAIN, I WOULD SAY WE'RE STILL GONNA BE IN A BETTER POSITION THAN OTHERS.UM, BECAUSE AGAIN, WE, WE DON'T HAVE THE, YOU KNOW, IT'S LIKE WE ALREADY TOOK THE IMPACT FROM EIGHT AND THAT ALREADY HIT US AND WENT THROUGH, UM, YOU KNOW, CAPITAL ONES, YOU KNOW, WHETHER THEY STAY OPEN OR, OR SHUT DOWN.
WE'VE TAKEN MOST OF THE IMPACT THAT CAME FROM THEM SENDING EVERYBODY HOME.
AND YOU'VE SEEING THIS NOW RECOVER FROM THAT IS AGAIN, YOU KNOW, COMMERCIAL GROWTH STARTS IN THAT AREA AND PEOPLE START, UH, THEY HAD AN EFFECTIVE APARTMENT.
YOU KNOW, AN APARTMENT THAT WE DO HAVE IS FILLED CAUSE PEOPLE STILL WANT TO LIVE IN THAT AREA.
SO IN LOOKING 24 MONTHS DOWN, DOWN THE FUTURE, UM, YOU KNOW, CAR PRICES AGAIN, PEOPLE BUYING NEW CARS NOW, THEY COULDN'T BUY NEW CARS 18 MONTHS AGO CAUSE THEY WEREN'T AVAILABLE.
YOU KNOW, THEY JUST WEREN'T, THAT'S WHY THEY BOUGHT USED CARS, RIGHT? SO AS THE USED CAR PRICE DECREASED, MORE PEOPLE WOULDN'T BUY A NEW CAR AGAIN.
AND IF PEOPLE DOESN'T MOVE IN AND BRING A CAR WITH THEM, SO, YOU KNOW, GROWING 2% A YEAR, THAT'S STRONG GROWTH.
I MEAN, THAT IS STRONG GROWTH FOR A COMMUNITY THAT'S, IT'S SUSTAINABLE.
UM, BUT IT'S GETTING TOWARDS THE APPEND SUSTAINABLE BREATH.
I MEAN, YOU, YOU START GETTING 3% GROWTH A YEAR AND THE IMPACT ON SERVICES BECOME SIGNIFICANT, ESPECIALLY IF THEY'RE BRINGING CHILDREN, YOU KNOW, I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THEIR, THEIR COMMUNITIES.
YOU KNOW, IF, IF YOU'RE GROWING 2% A YEAR, THAT'S 20% OVER, OVER THE SPAN OF A CENSUS.
UM, AND, AND THAT PUTS YOU IN THE CATEGORY OF A HIGH GROWTH COUNTY.
WHEN, WHEN YOU HIT THAT, IF YOU STARTED HITTING 3%, THEN YOUR SCHOOLS ARE OVERCROWDED, GOTTA START BRINGING IN PORTABLES.
UM, AND SO WE'RE FORTUNATELY NOT THERE, BUT THAT'S SOMETHING WHICH WE'RE HAVING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
I MEAN, BECAUSE THAT'S GROWTH IS GOOD UNTIL IT'S NOT GOOD.
AND, AND WE HAVE TO BE CONCERNED OVERGROWING TOO FAST IN THIS COMMUNITY AND OUR ABILITY TO PROVIDE THE SUPPORT THE SHERIFF IN THE BUDGET THAT WE'RE, THAT WE'RE POSING, IT'S, IT'S NOT WHAT HE WOULD'VE PREFERRED TO SEE, BUT IT'S A BUDGET THAT HE CAN LIVE WITH.
BUT HE STILL HAS STRONG FEELINGS OVER WHAT THE PUBLIC IS SEEKING IN PUBLIC SAFETY.
SAME THING WITH FIRE AND RESCUE.
IT'S NOT WHAT THEY WOULD PREFER TO, TO THE SEEN, BUT THEY STILL ARE GONNA HAVE EXPECTATIONS OF WHAT THEY BELIEVE THE PUBLIC'S LOOKING FOR.
SO WE'LL STILL HAVE THE COMMUNITY HAVING EXPECTATIONS OF GROWTH AND SERVICES, UM, THAT, YOU KNOW, AND, AND WE HAVEN'T ADDED REALLY A LOT OF EMPLOYEE, WE HAVE NO EMPLOYEES IN THIS BUDGET ADDED TO THE GENERAL SERVICES OF THE COUNTY.
SO AS THE COUNTY DOES GROW, WE'RE NOT ADDING ANYONE TO PLANNING ITS OWN.
WE'RE NOT ANYONE IN FINANCE ADDING L ONE IN THOSE AREAS.
THE TREASURER, THE COMMISSIONER, THEY'RE NOT GETTING THE NEW BODIES BUT MORE PEOPLE COMING AT THE DOOR.
SO AS WE LOOK TWO YEARS DOWN THE ROAD, THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT WE'RE ALREADY HAVING TO CONSIDER AS WILL WE BE ABLE TO MANAGE THE GROWTH THAT'S COMING IN AND PROVIDE THE SERVICES.
AGAIN, FUNDAMENTALLY WE WERE IN SO MUCH BETTER CONDITION THAN A LOT OF OUR SISTER COUNTIES ARE BECAUSE OF HOW OUR ECONOMY IS STRUCTURED.
BUT THAT'S KIND OF HOW FAR WE'RE HAVING TO LOOK AHEAD IS TWO OR THREE YEARS TO MAKE SURE THAT IT IS LIKE IN A FIRETRUCK TAKES TWO YEARS.
IF YOU WANT TO HAVE A FIRETRUCK, YOU HAVE TO OWN IT, YOU KNOW, BUY IT ALMOST TWO YEARS IN ADVANCE.
SO WE TALK ABOUT 18 MONTHS FOR THIS BUDGET.
WE'RE REALLY HAVING TO LOOK 24 TO 36 MONTHS BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, FOR THE LONGEST I'M GETTING POLICE CARS, YOU COULDN'T GET A POLICE CAR BECAUSE THERE WAS NO CHIPS FOR THE CARS.
SO, SO YOU HAD TO HUNT AND FIND CARS AND, AND PRAY YOU'RE GONNA GET 'EM IN 12 MONTHS.
SO WE'RE ACTUALLY LOOKING 24 TO 36 MONTHS IN THE FUTURE FOR A LOT OF WHAT WE'RE DOING NOW SO THAT WE CAN ENSURE THAT WE HAVE IT AVAILABLE.
THEN WHEN THAT TIME COMES, MR. SPOON, THERE'S PROBABLY A WHOLE LOT MORE OF AN ANSWER YOU EXPECTED.
YOU'RE, UH, CLOSER TO THIS THAN JUST ABOUT ANYBODY.
CAUSE YOU'RE ABLE TO SEE ACROSS ALL THE DIFFERENT AREAS AND WHATNOT.
SO I, YOUR INSIGHTS ARE VERY VALUABLE AS WELL.
AND IT SOUNDS LIKE, UH, I MEAN JUST, JUST THINK ABOUT WHAT WE'RE HEARING HERE.
WE WENT THROUGH A PANDEMIC AND FOUND THE MONEY TO BUILD A NEW SCHOOL.
WE'RE GOING THROUGH A RECESSION AND ANTICIPATING FLAT TO TWO OR 3% GROWTH.
I MEAN, IS THIS LANDING ON PEOPLE? I MEAN THIS, THIS, YOU KNOW, RECESSIONS SUPPOSED TO, YOU KNOW, HAVE A DECLINE AND YOU SHUT DOWN KINGS TO MENU, YOU LOSE A LOT OF REVENUE, BUT GLAND IS THAT SPECIAL PLACE THAT JUST HAS BEEN ABLE TO GO THROUGH THE, TO REALLY NAVIGATE THE WHITE WATERS IN, IN THE RIVER AND IT'S A TESTIMONY TO EVERYBODY HERE AND THE CITIZENS AS WELL AND GOOD CONSERVATIVE BUDGETING AND ALL THOSE THINGS.
UM, NOW WE'LL POINT OUT SOMETHING THAT'S WORTH NOTING FOR FOLKS THAT'VE BEEN AROUND A MILE, UM, IN OH 8, 0 9 AND 10 WITH THE 30% DECLINE OF REAL ESTATE VALUES, UH, WAS A DIFFERENT, DIFFERENT, UH, ENVIRONMENT.
BUT WHAT THE COUNTY DID BACK THEN IS INSTRUCTIONAL AS WELL BECAUSE IT WAS A 53 CENT REAL ESTATE TAX RATE.
REAL ESTATE DROPS 10 20% VALUE FORECLOSURES EVERYWHERE.
IF WE WANTED TO ACHIEVE A REVENUE NEUTRAL BUDGET THROUGH THAT WHOLE DOWNTURN, WE WOULD'VE HAD TO RAISE THE 53 UP TO SOMEWHERE AROUND 65 JUST TO STAY REVENUE NEUTRAL.
DO YOU WANNA DO A 20% INCREASE IN TAXES DURING A DEEP RECESSION WHEN FOLKS ARE LOSING THEIR
[01:05:01]
JOBS AND HAVING THEIR HOMES FORECLOSED ON? NO.THAT'S WHEN YOU WANT TO NOT BURDEN YOUR OVERBURDEN YOUR TAX BASE, RIGHT? BUT TO DO THAT, THE COUNTY HAD TO DEFER A LOT OF THINGS.
WE'LL BUY THAT FIRE ENGINE LATER.
WE'LL BUY THAT SHERIFF DEPUTY LATER WILL HIRE THOSE STAFF LATER.
WE'LL DO ALL, DO ALL THAT LATER, LATER, LATER.
AND THEN WHEN THINGS RECOVER LAST COUPLE OF YEARS AND YOU SEE 53 TIMES THE, THE 10% INCREASES, YOU'RE LIKE, WHOA, LOOK AT ALL THAT EXTRA MONEY.
WHY DON'T YOU DO A REVENUE NEUTRAL WITH LAST YEAR AND CUT THE 53 AND JUST TAKE IN THE SAME AMOUNT OF DOLLARS? AND A SHORT ANSWER IS, WE GOT A LOT OF CATCHING UP TO DO FROM OH 8, 9, 10, 11, RIGHT? I MEAN THAT'S, SO SHOULD WE CUT TAXES DURING THE GOOD TIMES WHEN FOLKS ARE HIRED AND HAVE MONEY AND THEN RAISE THEM DURING RECESSION WHEN THEY'RE, I MEAN THIS IS, YOU KNOW, POLICY KIND OF DECISIONS AT THE COUNTY LEVEL.
HOW SHOULD WE MANAGE OUR TAX RATE? AND IF YOU'RE GONNA LEAVE IT ALONE DURING A RECESSION, YOU'VE KIND OF GOTTA LEAVE IT ALONE DURING THE EXPANSION.
AND THAT'S WHEN CITIZENS ARE SAYING, WAIT, YOU'RE TAKING A LOT MORE MONEY.
WHY AREN'T YOU DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT? AND IT GETS BACK TO EDUCATION, SHARING INFORMATION ABOUT HOW THE COUNTY APPROACHES THINGS.
UM, I CALL IT BEING COUNTERAL AND TAKING IT CITIZENS WHEN THEY'RE HURTING IT, SAYING WHEN THE GOOD TIMES ARE AROUND, YOU KNOW, WE NEED TO CATCH UP A LITTLE BIT.
SO, UM, IT IS INSTRUCTIONAL, LOOK BACK ON THAT AS WELL.
HELP PUT IN CONTEXT WHAT'S GOING ON NOW WITH THE, THE TRAUMATIC INCREASE.
WHY, WHY NOT BEING REVENUE NEUTRAL LAST YEAR? THANK YOU FOR THAT.
UH, IS THERE ANYTHING ELSE TO COME BEFORE THIS GROUP? UH, ANY PUBLIC COMMENT FROM THE PUBLIC? I GUESS WE'VE ALREADY HAD SOME.
UM, IF THERE'S NOTHING ELSE TO COME BEFORE THIS GROUP TODAY, THIS HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL.
WE'RE INSTRUCTIONAL, I HOPE, UM, IT'S AT LEAST GOTTEN EVERYBODY IN THIS ROOM, BUT MORE OF A COMMON UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE WE ARE IN THE BUDGETING PROCESS, UH, WHICH IS HELPFUL SO THAT EVERYBODY KNOWS WHERE WE STAND AND WHERE WE'RE GOING FORWARD.
UM, WE LIKE ALWAYS, WE PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST AND UH, AND UH, THE COUNTY HAS GOTTEN THROUGH SOME VERY TOUGH TIMES IN, IN A GOOD WAY BECAUSE WE DO THAT.
ALRIGHT, WELL I'LL THANK EVERYBODY ONCE AGAIN AND WE'LL ADJOURN THIS MEETING TO 1230 ON MAY 2ND, 23.