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EVENING EVERYONE.UM, I'D LIKE TO THANK EVERYONE FOR SPENDING THIS BEAU BEAUTIFUL EVENING, THIS EVENING WITH US TO DO, TO GO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INFRASTRUCTURE STUDY.
UH, A COUPLE OF MY NAME IS TOM COLEMAN.
I'VE BEEN THE PROJECT MANAGER FOR STAFF FOR THIS PROJECT.
COUPLE HOUSEKEEPING ITEMS. THERE ARE BATHROOMS, UM, IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HALL TO YOUR RIGHT, IF ANYONE NEEDS TO USE THE RESTROOM.
UH, WE DO HAVE A SIGN IN SHEET.
UH, IF ANYONE, IF YOU SIGNED IN, IF WE HAVE ANY COMMUNICATIONS COMING OUT OF THIS MEETING, IF YOU SIGN IN, WE WILL MAKE SURE THAT YOU RECEIVE THOSE COMMUNICATIONS.
A COUPLE INTRODUCTIONS WE DO HAVE FROM THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS, UH, MR. VODS AND MR. LAU HERE AND FROM THE PLANNING COMMISSION, MR. PATAK.
AND, UH, YOUR PRIMARY HOST FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE TIMMONS CONSULTANTS.
AND I WILL TURN THIS OVER TO TIMMONS.
THANK YOU FOR, FOR COMING OUT.
AGAIN, MY NAME IS STEVE SCHMIDT.
I'M, UH, THE PROJECT MANAGER ON THIS PROJECT FOR TIMMONS GROUP.
WITH ME TONIGHT FROM TIMMINS IS PAUL TRAPP.
HE'S OUR PRINCIPAL IN CHARGE IN THE BACK, AND WE ALSO HAVE OUR SUB CONSULTANTS WITH US TODAY, MIKE CALLAHAN AND JEREMY GOLDSTEIN FROM UH, THREE TP.
YOU'LL HEAR FROM BOTH OF THEM, UH, THROUGHOUT THE, THIS PROCESS.
UM, WE'RE GONNA GIVE YOU A PRESENTATION, THEN WE'RE GONNA, UM, WE DO A LITTLE BIT OF AN OPEN HOUSE.
WE'VE GOT SOME QUESTIONS FOR, FOR YOU TO HAVE INPUT ON.
YOU'RE GONNA HEAR A LITTLE BIT TONIGHT ABOUT THE MODEL THAT WE'VE BUILT, AND WE'RE GONNA HAVE EXAMPLES OF
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THAT TO PLAY WITH UP HERE AS, AS WELL AS IF YOU, IF YOU WANT AFTER THAT.SO, UM, YEAH, WITH THAT, SO THIS IS THE, I JUST PUT DOWN, UM, AS YOU ALL REMEMBER, WE MET BACK IN MARCH FOR THE FIRST, UH, MEETING, THE FIRST CITIZEN MEETING.
THIS IS THE UCHIN COUNTY SOUTHEASTERN INFRASTRUCTURE STUDY.
UM, AND JUST A LITTLE BIT OF WHAT THIS IS AND ISN'T, RIGHT.
SO THIS STUDY IS, IT'S ALL ABOUT USING LOCAL DATA, LOCAL LEVELS OF SERVICE TO BETTER PROJECT THE INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH.
IN THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTY, WE'RE FOCUSED SOLELY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN INFRASTRUCTURE STUDY AREA OF THE COUNTY.
YOU'LL SEE A MAP IN A FEW MINUTES WITH A CIRCLE OF IT, OR IT'S A CIRCLE ON THE BACK AS WELL.
WHAT DO WE WANT TO DO? WHAT ARE WE HOPING TO GAIN FROM THIS? WE WANNA BE ABLE TO FORECAST REASONABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS IN ORDER TO GAUGE THE IMPACT ON THE INFRASTRUCTURE, THE ROADS, THE WATER, SEWER, THE SCHOOLS, UH, FIRE AND RESCUE.
UH, WE ALSO HAVE SOME TAX BASE IN THERE AS WELL.
THIS IS AN ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS DATA INFORMED, USING LOCAL KNOWLEDGE WHERE WE CAN, AND IT'S A TOOL TO BETTER SUPPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING.
OKAY, WHAT IS THIS NOT, THIS IS NOT AN UPDATE TO THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN THAT WAS APPROVED BACK IN 2015.
THIS IS NOT INTENDED TO DICTATE LAND USE POLICY.
WE ARE MAKING NO RECOMMENDATIONS ON ANY PARCEL TO CHANGE FROM THIS TO THAT.
THAT IS NOT PART OF THIS STUDY.
IT'S NOT A PROPOSAL FOR ANY NEW REGULATIONS OR TAXES IN THE STUDY AREA.
HOW DID WE GET HERE? HOW DID THIS, THIS STUDY COME BACK, COME ABOUT? THE MAJOR THOROUGHFARE PLAN, WHICH WAS ADOPTED IN 2018, DESIGNATED THIS AREA FOR FUTURE ANALYSIS.
UM, AND THE PREVIOUS LAND USE PLANNING EFFORTS HAVE IDENTIFIED THE NEED FOR BETTER INFRASTRUCTURE CAPACITY ANALYSIS IN THIS AREA OF THE COUNTY.
THIS IS A MAP FROM THAT, THAT THOROUGHFARE PLAN, AND LITERALLY THEY DREW A CIRCLE AROUND THIS AREA, RIGHT? I KNOW YOU PROBABLY CAN'T READ THE LEGEND UP TOP.
THAT'S JUST THE MAP STRAIGHT OUT OF THE PLAN.
BUT THE POINT OF THIS IS THE THOROUGHFARE PLAN LEFT THIS AREA, DREW A CIRCLE AND SAID, STUDY IN THE FUTURE.
WHY IS IT NEEDED? AS YOU ALL ARE AWARE, GLAND COUNTY IS GROWING.
PEOPLE IN BUSINESSES WANT TO LOCATE HERE.
CLAND COUNTY IS THE SECOND FASTEST GROWING COUNTY IN THE STATE SINCE 2020.
THESE ARE NUMBERS THROUGH THE END OF 2023.
UM, RIGHT BEHIND NEW KEN, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE SEEING A 5.1% GROWTH.
THE STUDY'S GOALS, WE NEED TO ADDRESS THE, THE CONSIDERATIONS IN THE FACE OF THAT GROWTH PRESSURE.
WE WANNA HELP DIRECT GROWTH TO THE DESIGNATED GROWTH AREAS AS IDENTIFIED.
WE WANNA HELP PROTECT THE COUNTY'S FINANCES WHILE MAINTAINING THE COUNTY'S SERVICES.
AND THEN WE ALSO WANNA PLAN FOR THE DESIGNATED GROWTH AREAS SO THAT WE CAN PROTECT THE RURAL AND NATURAL PARTS OF THE COUNTY.
WE ALSO WANNA BETTER UNDERSTAND THE IMPACTS OF GROWTH ON THE INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING, RIGHT? WE WANNA UNDERSTAND THAT IF THIS TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT COMES, WELL THEN WE NEED THIS ROAD.
IF THAT COMES, WE NEED THIS SCHOOL.
WE WANNA BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND AND PLAN FOR THOSE THINGS IN THE FUTURE.
THIS IS AN EMPIRICAL DATA-DRIVEN GUIDE, THE FOUNDATION TO GUIDE THE SUPERVISORS AND COUNTY STAFF WHEN CONSIDERING FUTURE LAND USE PLANS.
WHEN CONSIDERING FUTURE INFRASTRUCTURE DECISIONS, WE WANNA PROVIDE A TOOL.
WE WANNA PROVIDE DATA TO THE COUNTY, TO THE BOARD TO MAKE THOSE DECISIONS MOVING FORWARD.
SO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY, AGAIN, THAT WHITE CIRCLE IS, IS, IS OUR, IS OUR STUDY AREA IN AND AROUND THE PATTERSON AND 2 88 INTERCHANGE.
UM, IT'S BEEN IDENTIFIED AS A GROWTH AREA IN THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN WITH THE GOAL TO PROTECT THE RURAL AREA BY DIRECTING GROWTH TO THE AREAS WHERE WE CAN PLAN THE INFRASTRUCTURE, RIGHT? IF WE CAN PLAN TO GROW HERE, WE CAN HELP LEAVE THE REST OF THE COUNTY AS IS.
SO THIS IS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN.
THESE ARE GUIDING, GUIDING FA UH, FACTORS FOR THE WHOLE COUNTY.
WE WANNA PROMOTE BALANCED DEVELOPMENT AND PRESERVATION OF RURAL CHARACTER.
WE WANT TO ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR POPULATION GROWTH.
WE WANNA GUIDE DEVELOPMENT TO VILLAGE AREAS AND THOSE DESIGNATED GROWTH AREAS.
WE WANNA ENSURE NEW DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT EXCEED THE COUNTY'S ABILITY TO PROVIDE NEEDED SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
AND LASTLY, WE WANNA PROTECT NATURAL SCENIC AND HISTORIC RESOURCES.
THIS IS WHAT THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN IS TELLING US ON HOW TO PLAN FOR THE FUTURE OF GLAND.
AND WE TOOK THESE THINGS TO HEART WITH THIS STUDY.
WITH THIS, I'M GONNA TURN IT OVER TO MIKE CALLAHAN FROM THREE TP.
HE'S GONNA TELL US, WE, YOU GUYS REMEMBER WE ASKED QUESTIONS IF YOU WERE HERE THE LAST TIME ON WHAT YOU ALL WANNA SEE, WHAT RESIDENTS WANNA SEE FROM THE COUNTY, WE'RE GONNA TURN IT OVER AND HEAR, WHAT DO WE HEAR FROM YOU ALL? THANKS, STEVE.
UM, WHO IS HERE BACK IN MARCH? SHOW OF HANDS.
OKAY, SO ABOUT A THIRD OF YOU.
UM, I'M GONNA GO OVER SOME OF WHAT WE HEARD AND HOW IT INFORMED THE WAY WE WENT ABOUT THIS STUDY.
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WE HAD A MEETING RIGHT IN THIS ROOM, UM, AND WE USED SOMETHING CALLED MEANT TO METER, WHERE PEOPLE USE THEIR PHONES TO VOTE ON QUESTIONS THAT WE ASKED.AND WE WERE ABLE TO GET SOME REAL TIME FEEDBACK AND USE IT IN THE ANALYSIS THAT WE DID.
UM, SO WE ASKED QUESTIONS LIKE, HOW IMPORTANT ARE DIFFERENT THINGS TO YOU, SUCH AS WORKFORCE, HOUSING, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, PROTECTING RURAL AREAS, ET CETERA.
HERE YOU SEE THAT HIGH QUALITY COUNTY SERVICES LIKE FIRE AND RESCUE, FOR EXAMPLE, AND PRESERVATION OF RURAL AREAS AND HIGH QUALITY SCHOOLS WERE THE THREE TOP BOAT GETTERS.
WE ALSO ASKED A QUESTION ABOUT THE BALANCE IN LOCAL TAX REVENUE BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL LAND USES.
SO ABOUT 80% OF THE COUNTIES LOCALLY GENERATED REVENUES COME FROM RESIDENTIAL.
AND WE ASK, YOU KNOW, HOW IMPORTANT IS IT THAT MORE COMES FROM COMMERCIAL TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THAT BURDEN ON RESIDENTIAL? UH, AGAIN, ONE TO FIVE.
SO BIT MORE THAN HALF, YOU KNOW, TOWARDS BEING VERY IMPORTANT.
WE ALSO WANTED YOUR INPUT INTO THE LAND USE SCENARIOS THAT WE DEVELOPED.
SO WE LOOKED AT DIFFERENT, MY COLLEAGUE JEREMY'S GONNA EXPLAIN THE MOMENT, DIFFERENT LAND USE SCENARIOS TO UNDERSTAND HOW THEY WOULD AFFECT INFRASTRUCTURE IN THIS AREA.
AND AS PART OF THAT, WE WANTED YOUR HELP IN TELLING US WHAT TO MEASURE, WHAT'S IMPORTANT.
THIS IS YOUR STUDY, IT'S THE COUNTY STUDY, AND WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE IT WAS LOOKING AT THE THINGS THAT MATTER TO YOU.
AND SO THIS IS A LIST OF EIGHT ITEMS, UM, RANKED IN ORDER FROM WHAT THE COMMUNITY TOLD US BACK IN MARCH WITH COMMERCIAL TAX REVENUE BEING AT THE TOP ACRES DEVELOPED SECOND NEW HOUSING UNITS, THIRD WATER USE FOURTH, AND VEHICLE TRIPS FIFTH.
UH, AND THERE WAS ACTUALLY A PRETTY BIG DROP OFF AFTER THOSE FIVE.
AND THEN WE DID A KIND OF OPEN-ENDED QUESTION, AND IT WAS REPRESENTED ON THE SCREEN IS A WORD CLOUD.
THAT'S WHAT THIS IS CALLED HERE,
SO WORD SALAD, IS THAT WHAT YOU SAID? YEAH.
SO THE, THE BIGGER WORDS ARE THE ONES THAT PEOPLE SAID MORE IN THEIR RESPONSES.
SO WE ASKED THE QUESTION, WHAT IS THE GREATEST CONCERN YOU HAVE FOR THIS STUDY AREA? THIS SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE COUNTY, UM, DENSITY WAS, WAS TOP CONCERN, TRAFFIC, SCHOOLS, ROADS, FIRE AND RESCUE, WATER SAFETY, SEWER.
AGAIN, THE BIGGER WORDS ARE THE ONES REPEATED AGAIN AND AGAIN.
UM, SO WE REALLY TOOK TO HEART YOUR INPUT.
WE USED IT IN THE WORK THAT WE DID.
AND I HOPE TONIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE RESULTS, YOU'LL SEE THAT REFLECTED IN WHAT WE DID.
UM, SO JUST VERY HIGH LEVEL HERE, UH, AN OVERVIEW OF OUR PROCESS.
UM, THREE TP, MY COLLEAGUE JEREMY GOLDSTEIN, IS GONNA TALK IN JUST A MOMENT ABOUT HOW WE DEVELOP SOME DIFFERENT LAND USE SCENARIOS.
AND WE DID THIS IN ORDER TO ESTIMATE THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT WAYS THIS AREA COULD DEVELOP IN THE FUTURE ON FIRE AND RESCUE SCHOOLS, ROADS, WATER, AND SEWER, THE THINGS THAT YOU TOLD US MATTERED TO YOU.
AND SO I'M GONNA NOW TURN IT OVER TO JEREMY TO GO INTO A LITTLE MORE DETAIL ABOUT HOW WE DID THIS.
SO TO START, WE HAD A FRAMEWORK FOR WHAT IT WAS THAT WE WERE TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH, AND WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE THEN THAT WE PUT THAT INTO PROCESS WITH SOME THOUGHTFULNESS ABOUT WHAT THIS, THE, THE ANALYTICAL PORTION SHOULD DO AND SHOULD NOT.
SO THE FIRST THING WE REALLY WANTED TO MAKE SURE OF WAS THAT IT WAS ANALYZING THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN A REALLY, LIKE QUANTITATIVE BUT TRANSPARENT WAY.
WE THOUGHT IT WAS REALLY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE BE ABLE TO SEE WHAT IT IS THAT WENT INTO THIS MODEL, WENT INTO THE SCENARIO ANALYSIS, UH, AND COULD ADJUST COMMENT AS AS NEED BE.
SO WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE THAT WAS TRUE.
WHAT WE DIDN'T WANT TO DO WAS TO HAVE THIS BE SOMETHING THAT IN AND OF ITSELF MADE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WHAT THE FUTURE SHOULD BE LIKE.
THAT'S NOT WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO.
REMEMBER FROM ONE OF THE EARLIER SLIDES TALKED ABOUT HOW THIS ISN'T MEANT TO DRIVE POLICY.
WE WANTED TO MAKE THAT VERY CLEAR THROUGH THIS TOOL AS WELL.
AND WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE THAT, UH, UH, PEOPLE UNDERSTOOD WE WEREN'T MAKING RECOMMENDATIONS SPECIFICALLY ABOUT LIKE, HOW MUCH GROWTH SHOULD REALLY BE IN THIS AREA.
THAT'S NOT WHAT THIS STUDY IS ABOUT.
IT'S ABOUT INFORMING HOW GROWTH HAS IMPACTS ON INFRASTRUCTURE.
THAT'S THE REAL, THAT'S THE REAL GOAL HERE.
BUT WE WANTED TO PUT REAL NUMBERS TO THAT INSTEAD OF JUST WORDS AND BEING A NUMBERS PERSON, THAT, THAT APPEALED TO ME.
SO WHAT WE DEVELOPED WAS A, WAS A TOOL, AN ANALYTICAL TOOL, A SPREADSHEET BASED TOOL THAT CREATES DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, UH, TO HELP THE COUNTY ESTIMATE THOSE INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS.
UM, SO WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO, UH, UH, ACCOMPLISH HERE IS A MEANS BY WHICH WE CAN ENTER IN THE VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS
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AND INPUTS THAT WOULD GO INTO ANY PROJECTION ABOUT THE FUTURE.WHAT'S THIS PLACE GONNA BE LIKE IN 20 YEARS? WELL, THERE'S ANY NUMBER OF THINGS YOU GOTTA SORT OF BE THINKING ABOUT, UH, TO, TO MAKE THAT, MAKE THAT PROJECTION.
BUT ALL OF THEM ARE BASED ON REALLY UN FULLY UNKNOWABLE THINGS ABOUT THE FUTURE.
BUT WHERE YOU CAN'T SAY, HERE ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS THAT WENT INTO THAT IDEA ABOUT THE FUTURE, AND HERE'S KIND OF WHERE THE DATA CAME FROM.
WE'RE TRYING TO MAKE SURE THAT THAT'S VERY TRANSPARENT, WHICH IS WHY WE'RE GONNA BE TALKING TO YOU ABOUT IT IN DETAIL THIS EVENING.
UM, AND THEN WE ALSO WANTED THIS TO BE A LEAVE BEHIND THAT THE COUNTY COULD BE USING MOVING FORWARD THROUGH THE FUTURE AS THIS REGION CHANGES, AS PRIORITIES CHANGE, AS DIFFERENT IDEAS EMERGE, WE WANTED THIS TO BE A TOOL THAT THEY COULD CONTINUE TO USE.
IT, IT LIVES ON IN PERPETUITY.
SO SINCE WE'RE GOING TO DO THIS SORT OF LIKE MODELING PROCESS, HAVE TO HAVE THIS VERY IMPORTANT CAVEAT ABOUT MODELING, WHICH IS THAT WE CAN'T PREDICT THE FUTURE, RIGHT? IT'S NOT, NOT A SURPRISE TO ANYBODY HERE.
UM, AND THE MODEL ITSELF ISN'T DESIGNED REALLY TO DO THAT.
IT'S REALLY MEANT TO INFORM LONG RANGE PLANNING.
IT GIVES US DIFFERENT WAYS OF LOOKING AT, AT THE FUTURE, WELL WHAT IF THINGS GREW LIKE THIS? WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT? WHAT IF THEY GREW LIKE THAT? WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT? SO THAT'S WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO.
UM, BUT TO DO IT REALLY WELL, I THINK REALLY REQUIRES INPUTS FROM TWO MAIN SOURCES.
ONE WHICH IS JUST, YOU KNOW, KIND OF A RESEARCH AND, AND, AND INSTITUTIONAL KNOWLEDGE.
BUT THE OTHER IS IN LOCAL DISCUSSION WITH LOCAL PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOCAL INTUITION, LOCAL KNOWLEDGE.
AND WE DID A GREAT DEAL OF THAT AND WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT, UH, A LITTLE MORE ABOUT THAT HERE IN A MOMENT.
SO WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR THIS PURPOSE, FOR, FOR AT LEAST THIS FIRST ITERATION OF THIS TOOL, WAS TO CREATE THESE SCENARIOS.
THESE THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, ALL OF WHICH YOU COULD SAY ARE, ARE, ARE PLAUSIBLE.
THEY'RE, THEY'RE BASED IN SOMETHING THAT AT LEAST MAKES SENSE AS SOME, YOU KNOW, RATIONAL NEXUS, BUT NONE OF THEM ARE NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED TO BE THE REAL FUTURE.
UM, WHAT THEY'RE REALLY DESIGNED TO DO IS TO GIVE US DIFFERENT, DIFFERENT SLICES OF WHAT LIKE THE FUTURE WOULD BE LIKE AND WHAT THE CHANGES IN THE INFRASTRUCTURE CAPACITY, NEEDS, ISSUES, ET CETERA.
SO THAT AS WE, YOU KNOW, AS GLIN GROWS THE CHANGES, WE HAVE A WAY OF PREPARING FOR THAT, ANALYZING THAT, ET CETERA.
AND THAT'S WHAT THIS TOOL DOES.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE HERE THAT, UH, WHAT WE'RE REALLY TALKING ABOUT THIS, UH, TOOL DOING IS, IS PROJECTING GROWTH ON PARCELS THAT DON'T HAVE ANYTHING ON THEM.
SO IF THEY'RE, IF YOU KNOW, WE'RE IN THIS STUDY AREA, YOU'LL SEE A MAP HERE IN JUST A MOMENT.
YOU'RE IN THE STUDY AREA AND THERE'S SOMETHING THERE.
NOW THERE'S A HOUSE, THERE'S A BUSINESS.
THE, THE MODEL EFFECTIVELY DOESN'T CARE ABOUT IT.
IT'S LIKE IT'S GREAT, IT'S THERE, IT'S GONNA STAY THERE IN PERPETUITY, NO CHANGE.
WHAT WE REALLY CARE ABOUT OTHER PLACES THAT DON'T HAVE SOMETHING ON IT.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF SUCH AND SUCH A THING WENT ON IT? WHAT IF NEW RESIDENTS WENT THERE? WHAT IF NEW BUSINESSES WENT THERE? SO IT'S ONLY THOSE UNDEVELOPED ONES.
OKAY? SO WE HAD THREE, THREE SCENARIOS, THREE DIFFERENT SORT OF STYLE OF IDEAS.
THE FIRST ONE, UM, WE'RE CALLING A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN AND EXISTING PATTERN.
WHAT IT REALLY MEANS IS THAT WE'RE SORT OF COPYING AND PASTING, AS IT WERE.
THE THINGS THAT ARE OUT THERE NOW EFFECTIVELY KEEP SPREADING OUT INTO THE UNDE, INTO THE UNDEVELOPED PARCELS, BUT INFORMED BY THE FUTURE LAND USE THAT THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN HAS.
SO THE PLACES THAT WERE SORT OF DESIGNED TO BE MORE, UM, ECONOMICALLY FOCUSED ARE LIKELY TO HAVE MORE ECONOMICALLY FOCUSED KINDS OF BUSINESSES, BUT THAT LOOK LIKE THE KINDS OF BUSINESSES THAT ARE OUT THERE NOW.
SO THAT'S WHAT THAT ONE IS, AND I THINK THAT'S USEFUL, EASIER FUTURE OF A FAIRLY LARGE AREA, WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE AND WHAT YOU'LL SEE SOME OF LIKE THE, THE, THE NUMERICAL OUTCOMES OF, OF THIS KIND OF GROWTH.
I THINK IT HELPS TO SORT OF THINK OF THIS.
I THINK THIS IS THE EASIEST ONE TO SEE IN YOUR MIND'S EYE.
LIKE, OH, IT LOOK, IT'S THAT EXCEPT SPREAD OUT MORE, I THINK.
SO THAT, I THINK IT HELPS TO SORT OF GROUND THIS.
AND THAT MAY BE SOMETHING USEFUL AS YOU'RE SEEING, UH, STEVE GO THROUGH SOME OF THE RESULTS THAT THAT'S KIND OF THE ONE MAYBE THAT'S EASIEST TO GET YOUR MIND AROUND.
AND THEN THESE OTHERS YOU CAN USE FOR COMPARISON.
THE SECOND SCENARIO WAS ONE WITH A MORE OF AN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT LEAN.
SO WHAT IF THIS PLACE GREW IN A WAY THAT WAS MUCH MORE COMMERCIALLY FOCUSED, SAY, THAN RESIDENTIALLY FOCUSED? THAT THAT'S ITS IDEA.
SO IT'S GOT, YOU CAN SEE IT'S GOT SOME RESIDENTIAL IN IT, BUT THERE'S MORE LIKE MAYBE AN OFFICE LIKE INDUSTRIAL, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.
AND THE MODEL ITSELF IS FLEXIBLE ENOUGH TO YOU, YOU CAN ENTER IN YOURSELF, OH, WELL I'D LIKE TO SEE X PERCENT THIS KIND OF, THIS KIND OF USE.
UM, SO THAT IF YOU WANTED TO MAKE CHANGES IN THE FUTURE, IT'S EASILY DONE.
THE THIRD ONE, UH, WE'RE CALLING A MIXED USE, UH, KIND OF LEANING SCENARIO.
I THINK MAYBE SOME FOLKS ARE FAMILIAR WITH THE CONCEPT OF MIXED USE, BUT THE CONCEPT OF MIXED USE, UH, WHERE LIKE MAYBE ON ONE SITE THERE'S LIKE, OH, THE GROUND FLOOR IS RETAIL, AND THEN THERE
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IS A RESIDENCE ABOVE.AND ALSO WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT THAT KIND OF MIXED USE.
WHAT WE'RE REALLY TALKING ABOUT IS LIKE IN, IN THE ENTIRE AREA, THE KINDS OF USES THAT YOU WOULD FIND AGGREGATED UP WOULD BE, WOULD BE A WIDER RANGE OF LIKE THE KINDS OF PLACES YOU WOULD LIVE, WORK AND PLAY, SAY.
SO THERE'S MAYBE A LITTLE BIT MORE RESIDENTIAL ALONG WITH SOME COMMERCIAL USES.
THERE'S MAYBE A LITTLE BIT MORE RETAIL, THINGS LIKE THAT.
SO YOU CAN JUST THINK OF THIS AS MAYBE LIKE A BIT MORE OF A, A, A DIVERSITY OF USES AND MORE OF A MIX.
SO NOT SO MUCH ABOUT ANY INDIVIDUAL SITE, BUT JUST THE COLLECTIVE.
ALRIGHT, SO NOW IF WE'RE MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT GROWTH FOR THE FUTURE, UH, YOU KNOW, IT'S GOTTA GO ON LIKE REAL LAND.
AND ONE OF THE IMPORTANT THINGS ABOUT THIS WE REALLY WANTED TO MAKE SURE, UH, PEOPLE UNDERSTOOD AND WAS CLEAR ABOUT OUR METHODOLOGY IS WE MADE, THERE ARE NO RECOMMENDATIONS ABOUT INDIVIDUAL, LIKE PROPERTY OWNERS PARCELS OF LIKE THEIR OWN PROPERTY, THEIR OWN INDIVIDUAL PARCEL OF LAND.
THERE'S NOTHING IN THE MODEL THAT SAYS AT THIS ADDRESS, WE EXPECT IT TO BE THIS KIND OF USE.
IT'S NOT, IT'S NOT OUR BUSINESS.
I MEAN, IT'S SOMEBODY'S, SOMEBODY OWNS THAT.
BUT WHAT WE DID STILL WANNA DO WAS COME UP WITH SOME WAY OF MAKING A MORE AGGREGATED, UH, ESTIMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE.
SO WE DID THAT THROUGH THIS IDEA OF LAND-BASED TAKING A COLLECTION OF PARCELS THAT MAYBE HAVE SOMETHING IN COMMON.
SOMETIMES IT IS, OH, THEY'RE ALL OWNED BY THE SAME GROUP, FOR INSTANCE, OR THEY'RE ALL BOUNDED BY THE SAME INFRASTRUCTURE, SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
LIKE THEY HAD, THEY USUALLY HAVE SOMETHING IN COMMON.
AND WHAT WE'RE SAYING IS WITHIN ALL THE AVAILABLE LAND WITHIN THAT SPACE, ALL THE VACANT, ALL THE VACANT LAND THAT'S DEVELOPABLE WITHIN THAT SPACE, WHAT PROPORTION OF IT MIGHT BE RESIDENTIAL, WHAT PROPORTION OF IT MIGHT BE COMMERCIAL.
IT'S NOT ASSIGNING TO ANY INDIVIDUAL PLACE.
IT'S THE, IT'S THE COLLECTIVE.
AND WHAT PROPORTION OF IT DOES THAT, DOES THAT MAKE SENSE? I I DO THINK THIS IS AN IMPORTANT THING TO, TO UNDERSTAND.
LIKE THERE'S REALLY NOBODY HERE THAT'S TRYING TO ASSIGN INDIVIDUAL USES TO INDIVIDUAL PARCELS, BUT WE DID THEN HAVE TO MAKE ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT WHAT WENT INTO EACH OF THOSE LAND BASE.
AND SO THE, ALL OF THE REST OF THIS WORK HERE IS REALLY INFORMED BY THESE KIND OF LIKE THESE, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THESE LIKE GUIDING PRINCIPLES, UH, MOSTLY ABOUT, AS WE TALKED A LITTLE BIT BEFORE, LIKE THIS IS THE RESEARCH AND CONVERSATION.
SO WE HAD A LOT OF DISCUSSIONS WITH EXISTING LANDOVER LANDOWNERS INTERESTED IN WHAT THEIR THOUGHTS ARE ABOUT THE FUTURE, WHAT THEY WERE THINKING ABOUT DOING, LIKE TO REPRESENT THAT AS MUCH AS WE COULD, DISCUSSIONS WITH COUNTY STAFF, LOCAL EXPERTS, UH, AND OTHERS TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE GETTING AS MUCH SORT OF LOCAL INTUITION AND KNOWLEDGE AS WE CAN GET.
AND THEN WE ALSO INCLUDED LIKE LOCAL PLANS AND POLICIES.
SO WHAT THE, WHAT GUIDANCE WAS THERE AND THEN, AND THEN SOME SORT OF LIKE, YOU KNOW, MARKET TRENDS, UM, THAT, THAT WE WANTED TO INFORM.
SO WE WANTED TO TRY TO MAKE THESE, YOU KNOW, AS REALISTIC AS WE COULD EVEN RECOGNIZE, OF COURSE, WE'RE NEVER GONNA BE EXACTLY RIGHT.
WE JUST WOULD WANNA BE AS LEAST WRONG ABOUT THE FUTURES WE CAN BE.
SO ANY ONE OF THESE MODELS IS GONNA HAVE A WHOLE HOST OF KIND OF ASSUMPTIONS THAT HAVE TO GO INTO IT.
AND I'M GONNA GIVE YOU A, A TASTE OF, UH, OF, OF SOME OF THESE AND TRY TO TAX YOUR PATIENTS AND GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS.
BUT THE, THE, THE PRIMARY ONE IS JUST LIKE LAND USE MIX.
WELL, THE
AND, UM, IN THIS LAND BAY, FOR EACH OF THESE LAND BAYS INDIVIDUAL DECISION MADE IN EACH LAND BAY, WHAT PERCENTAGE IS RESIDENTIAL, AND WITHIN THAT, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE RESIDENTIAL IS SINGLE FAMILY OR MULTIFAMILY? WHAT PERCENTAGE IS COMMERCIAL? AND WITHIN THAT, WHAT PERCENTAGE IS ONE KIND OF COMMERCIAL USE OR ANOTHER KIND OF COMMERCIAL USE OR ANOTHER KIND OF COMMERCIAL USE, RIGHT? SO WE HAD TO MAKE ALL, WE HAD TO MAKE ALL OF THOSE, ALL THOSE ASSUMPTIONS.
AND AGAIN, WE WANTED TO BUILD A TOOL THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR THE FLEXIBILITY TO MAKE CHANGES, UPGRADES, ADJUSTMENTS OVER TIME.
SO THAT'S WHAT IT'S STILL DOING.
THE NEXT THING WE NEEDED TO THINK ABOUT WAS INTENSITY, WHICH REALLY JUST MEANS LIKE, UM, FOR BY MEANS OF EXAMPLE, A UH, YOU CAN HAVE A SINGLE FAMILY HOUSE IN A RURAL AREA THAT TAKES UP A LOT MORE SPACE THAN A SINGLE FAMILY HOUSE IN A MORE URBAN AREA.
SO WE HAD TO SAY, OKAY, WELL WHAT, WHAT ARE WE REALLY THINKING ABOUT FOR INTENSITY? SO, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN BUILD MORE SINGLE FAMILY UNITS IN PLACES THAT HAVE UTILITY CONNECTIONS THAN YOU CAN IN PLACES THAT USE WELL IN SEPTIC.
SO WE WANT TO TAKE THAT KIND OF STUFF INTO CONSIDERATION.
AND THERE'S SIMILAR VERSIONS KIND OF FOR COMMERCIAL USES, BUT I, YOU KNOW, I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA HERE.
WE ALSO NEEDED TO MAKE SOME ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT, KIND OF ABOUT MARKET TRENDS INFORMED BY, INFORMED BY COUNTY STAFF, WHICH IS INCREDIBLY HELPFUL, UH, TO HELP US TRY TO AVOID PUTTING IN THINGS THAT ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO APPEAR ANYTIME, CERTAINLY IN THE, IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
KINDA THE BEST EXAMPLE OF THAT IS THIS, YOU KNOW, LIKE THE, THE, THE OLD LIKE, YOU KNOW, KIND OF NINE TO FIVE OFFICE, OFFICE BUILDING, SUBURBAN OFFICE PARK, FOR INSTANCE, WHICH RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO CLEAR MARKET FOR, AND NO ONE'S REALLY ANTICIPATING THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE.
SO LET'S TRY NOT TO THEN SAY, TO POPULATE THIS THING WITH LIKE A LOT OF SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS.
AND THEN LAST, WE WANTED TO KEEP THESE THINGS SORT OF GROUNDED TO OTHER PEOPLE'S THOUGHTS ABOUT THE FUTURE.
I THINK MOST SPECIFICALLY, THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA HAS THIS SORT OF LIKE POPULATION ANALYSIS CENTER CALLED WELDON COOPER CENTER.
THEY DO POPULATION FORECASTS, UH, FOR EVERY
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COUNTY AND SORT OF, YOU KNOW, LIKE MAJOR CITY IN VIRGINIA, THEY'RE ONE OF THE ONES WHO THINK THAT GLAND COUNTY IS GONNA BE ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING PLACES IN ALL THE STATE.UM, AND SO WE WANTED TO BE ABLE TO SAY, WELL, LET'S BE ABLE TO COMPARE, YOU KNOW, THIS, THE, THE, OUR MODELS, UH, OUR SCENARIOS, EXPECTATIONS ABOUT POPULATION GROWTH AND LET, WE'LL BE ABLE TO COMPARE IT TO SOMEBODY ELSE'S FORECAST TO SAY, WELL, HOW DOES THIS FIT, YOU KNOW, WHAT PROPORTION OF THEIR EXPECTED GROWTH WOULD BE ACCOMMODATED IN THIS STUDY AREA UNDER THIS SCENARIO? I THINK IT HELPS TO GIVE IT, YOU KNOW, GIVE IT SOME CONTEXT.
YOU KNOW, IT'S ONE THING TO SAY WE EXPECT A THOUSAND PEOPLE HERE.
UH, IT'S ANOTHER THING TO SAY WE EXPECT IT'S A THOUSAND, BUT THE COUNTY'S SUPPOSED TO HAVE 40,000 PEOPLE.
SORRY, I WANNA MAKE CLEAR THAT'S A TOTALLY MADE UP NUMBER.
BUT LIKE, YOU KNOW, THAT LIKE, WHATEVER THE THING IS, IT HELPS TO HAVE SOME CONTEXT ABOUT HOW MUCH, HOW MUCH, UH, IS, IS, UH, GROWTH IS BEING, IS BEING, UH, UH, HANDLED IN THE AREA.
AND THEN THE LAST SORT OF PIECE ABOUT THE WEEDS IS, IS WE NEEDED TO FIND SOME WAY TO TRANSLATE JUST THE IDEA OF LIKE, GROWTH.
WE'RE EXPECTING SOME NUMBER OF HOUSES WITH CAPACITY.
WELL, LIKE, YOU KNOW, WHAT IS, HOW, HOW MUCH DOES A HOUSE IMPACT INFRASTRUCTURE, RIGHT? LIKE EVERY HOUSE NEEDS, YOU KNOW, USES SOME AMOUNT OF WATER, USES SOME AMOUNT OF SEWER, TAKES SOME AMOUNT OF TRIPS, PAYS, YOU KNOW, SUCH AMOUNT OF MONEY INTO, UH, THE TAX BASE HAS SOME NUMBER OF KIDS THAT GO TO SCHOOL, ET CETERA.
SO WHAT WE DID THEN WAS TO FIND, YOU KNOW, THE, LIKE THE NUMBER, THE NUMERICAL EQUIVALENT OF LIKE, YOU KNOW, HOW MUCH WATER IS THERE FOR EACH HOUSE, HOW MUCH WATER IS THERE FOR EVERY BUSINESS, HOW MANY TRIPS ARE BEING TAKEN, ET CETERA.
UM, THE, UH, FOUR TRIPS, FOR INSTANCE, THE INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERS, IT'S A NATIONAL INSTITUTION, HAS A, WHAT THEY CALL TRIP GENERATION HANDBOOK.
AND THEY'VE DONE ALL THE RESEARCH JUST TO DETERMINE WHAT IS THE AVERAGE OR THE TYPICAL NUMBER OF TRIPS TAKEN FOR BASICALLY EVERY KIND OF RESIDENTIAL STYLE AND EVERY KIND OF COMMERCIAL STYLE.
SO LIKE, WE'RE JUST GONNA USE THEIR NUMBER.
THEY SAY IT'S THE AVERAGE IS 6.2 TRIPS PER SINGLE FAMILY HOUSEHOLD.
THEN WE'RE GONNA USE 6.2 TRIPS PER SINGLE FAMILY HOUSEHOLD.
SOMETIMES WE COULD USE THINGS THAT WERE, WERE MORE LOCALLY CREATED.
UTILITIES PLAN HAD SOME ESTIMATES FOR HOW MUCH WATER AND SEWER USE THERE IS ON RESIDENTIAL UNITS.
SO WE'LL USE, WE'LL USE THEIRS.
AND SOMETIMES WE'D ALSO THEN USE, UH, UH, THINGS THAT WE GOT DIRECTLY FROM, UH, THE PEOPLE WHO KNOW THE STUFF BEST LOCALLY, FOR INSTANCE.
SO, UH, LIKE THE, UM, FIRE AND RESCUE WHEN IT COMES TO, THEY, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE A LOT OF NEEDS, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO, UM, CAPACITY, ANY ONE OF THEIR NEW FIRE AND RESCUE STATIONS HAS EFFECTIVELY HAS LIKE A MINIMUM NUMBER, AMOUNT OF SPACE THAT THEY NEED TO DO WHAT THEY DO.
YOU KNOW, IF THEY'RE SERVING ONE PERSON OR THEY'RE SERVING 500 PEOPLE, THE BUILDING STILL NEEDS TO BE BIG ENOUGH FOR ALL THE STUFF THAT THEY GOTTA DO IN CASE SOMEBODY CALLS, RIGHT? SO IT'S ALWAYS 15,000 SQUARE FEET MINIMUM.
SO EVERY TIME YOU NEED TO, YOU KNOW, YOU EXPAND PAST 15,000 SQUARE FEET WORTH OF LIKE, NEED, YOU'RE BUYING ANOTHER 15,000 SQUARE FOOT THING, YOU'RE NOT BUYING A ONE SQUARE FOOT THING TO DEAL WITH THE NEXT PERSON, RIGHT? SO THAT'S HOW, SO THAT'S HOW THIS THING WAS BUILT.
WE GOT THROUGH ALL THAT STUFF.
WE GOT THROUGH ALL THE, ALL THE DETAIL.
UH, AND WHAT, WHAT CAME OUTTA ALL THIS THEN IS WE PUT ALL THIS STUFF INTO OUR, OUR, UH, INTO OUR MODEL.
AND WHAT YOU'RE SEEING HERE IS, YOU KNOW, KIND OF LIKE THE USER INTERFACE PAGE, JUST, JUST FOR RIGHT NOW.
UM, AND WHAT IT DOES IS IT, IT ALLOWS YOU TO SELECT THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THAT, THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED.
AND THERE CAN BE NEW SCENARIOS DEVELOPED.
ANY OTHER, YOU KNOW, ANYTIME, UH, SO IN THIS CASE, YOU KNOW, IT'S LIKE, OH, THIS PERSON IS LOOKING AT, THEY'RE GONNA SELECT THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ONE, OR IT IS SELECTED NOW AND MAYBE THEY'RE GOING TO A NEW ONE.
HERE THEY GO, NOW THEY'RE, THEY, THEY CLICKED ON THE MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT ONE.
IT ALSO HAS A, A, A FEATURE TO SHOW THE BUILD OUT EXTENT.
SO, UH, A LOT OF WHAT WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT IS SORT OF IS FULL BUILD OUT, LIKE, YOU KNOW, EVERYTHING EFFECTIVELY IS, IS BUILT UPON, BUT THERE ARE LOTS OF DIFFERENT ITERATIVE STAGES OF GROWTH AND CHANGE.
AND WE WANT THIS MODEL TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME OF THOSE.
SO YOU CAN SEE IT'S GOT LIKE, WELL, WHAT IF WE ONLY DID A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF GROWTH? WHAT, WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS AT THAT STAGE? WHAT IF WE WERE SORT OF HALFWAY THERE? WHAT, WHAT, WHAT'S THAT? YOU KNOW, WHAT THAT STAGE.
SO IT IT, IT HAS THAT SORT OF FEATURE AS WELL.
AND ONCE YOU'VE SELECTED THAT, IT TELLS YOU TWO THINGS.
IT TELLS YOU THE OUTPUTS OF THE NEW GROWTH.
SO IN THIS SCENARIO, IT, IT DOES ITS LITTLE, YOU KNOW, IT DOES ITS MAGIC AND IT SPITS OUT THIS MANY NUMBER OF NEW UNITS, THIS KIND OF WATER AND SEWER USE, THIS NEW ASSESSED VALUE IN BUILDING VALUE THAT WASN'T THERE BEFORE.
AND THEN ALSO PROVIDES AS BEST IT CAN SORT OF LIKE A GENERALIZED CAPACITY IMPLICATION.
SO, YOU KNOW, RAISE YOUR HAND IF YOU KNEW AHEAD OF TIME, UH, THAT 271,000 GALLONS OF WATER A DAY WAS 5% OF YOUR CAPACITY.
OKAY, WELL, YOU KNOW, SO LIKE, IT'S DESIGNED TO GIVE YOU SOME CONTEXT INTO WHAT, WHAT ALL THIS, WHAT ALL THIS STUFF MEANS.
SO THAT'S THE TOOL THAT WE BUILT WITH STAFF AS A LEAVE BEHIND AND WE HOPE AN ENHANCEMENT MOVING FORWARD IN ANY OF THIS SORT OF WORK THAT THEY WANNA DO.
[00:35:01]
SO WITH THAT, WE ACTUALLY GET TO THE GOOD PARTS, WHICH IS MORE ABOUT THE FINDINGS OF THESE ANALYSIS.AND I'M GONNA TURN THAT BACK OVER TO STEVE BEFORE WE GET INTO THE FINDINGS.
WE WILL HAVE, I KNOW THAT WAS HARD TO SEE ON THE SCREEN.
WE DO HAVE EXAMPLES OF THE TOOL UP FRONT YOU CAN COME TAKE A LOOK AT AFTERWARDS.
WE CAN PLAY WITH IT, SHOW HOW THAT MOVES AND CHANGES THINGS.
AND SO AS JEREMY SAID, WE HAVE THE DIFFERENT ITERATIONS.
WE HAVE FAST, SLOW, BUILD OUT, FULL BUILD OUT.
THE NUMBERS YOU'RE SEEING HERE ARE STRICTLY FOR 90% BUILD OUT.
LET'S GO TO THE END AND SEE IF WE GET TO THAT POINT.
WHAT SORT OF INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS WILL WE HAVE? SO LEFT TO RIGHT.
THEN WE HAVE THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN SCENARIO THAT KIND OF CUT AND PASTE THAT JEREMY TALKED ABOUT.
AND THEN THE FAR RIGHT IS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
I'M GONNA SHOW YOU EACH OF THE IMPACTS INDIVIDUALLY.
WE DO HAVE IT AGGREGATED ON THE BOARD IN THE BACK IF YOU WANNA TAKE A LOOK AT AFTERWARDS.
UM, SO WHAT THIS MEANS IS IF THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN SCENARIO WERE TO BUILD OUT A 90%, WE COULD EXPECT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 4.3 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF COMMERCIAL VARYING TYPES, NOT ANY ONE TYPE.
WE DO KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN CALLED FOR SOME OFFICE IN THIS AREA.
WE LEFT THAT IN THERE FOR THAT PURPOSE.
IT GOT TAKEN OUT IN SOME OF THE OTHER ONES.
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN WOULD CALL FOR 110 NEW HOMES, SINGLE FAMILY HOMES WITH ZERO MULTIFAMILY HOMES.
UM, MIXED USE SCENARIO WOULD BE 2.5 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF COMMERCIAL, BUT THEN IT WOULD HAVE MORE RESIDENTIAL 660 SINGLE FAMILY AND 2100 MULTIFAMILY HOMES.
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, AGAIN, THAT 4.3 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF COMMERCIAL OF A DIFFERENT TYPE, VERY DIFFERENT TYPE.
IN, IN, IN THAT SCENARIO, WE BROUGHT IN SOME MORE FLEX OFFICE, WE BROUGHT IN SOME MORE INDUSTRIAL.
THERE'S A SCENARIO WE LOOKED AT WITH AND WITHOUT A DATA CENTER IMPACT HERE AS WELL.
SO A DIFFERENT TYPE OF COMMERCIAL, BUT THEN ALSO WOULD STILL HAVE 220 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES.
HOMES AND SEVEN HOMES, 220 SINGLE FAMILY AND 770 MULTIFAMILY.
OKAY? SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR ROADS, FOR EXAMPLE? WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE, THE TRANSPORTATION NETWORK IN AND AROUND THE AREA? AND I WANNA CAUTION YOU BY SAYING THIS IS NOT ON ANY ONE ROAD.
THIS IS NOT JUST ON PATTERSON.
THIS IS AN AGGREGATE TOTAL OF WHAT THE CAPACITY IS IN THE AREA RIGHT NOW.
IF YOU AGGREGATE ALL OF THAT, THERE'S ABOUT A 20,000 TRIP PER DAY, UH, CAPACITY IN EXCESS OF WHAT'S OUT THERE NOW, UH, IN EXCESS OF WHO'S DRIVING OUT THERE TODAY.
SO YOU COULD ACCOMMODATE 20,000 VEHICLES PER DAY AND UNDER ANY SCENARIO BEFORE MAKING ANY IMPROVEMENTS.
SO COMP PLAN THOUGH, WOULD GENERATE 28,000 VEHICLE TRIPS PER DAY, 8,000 MORE THAN WE HAVE THE AVAILABILITY, THE AVAILABILITY TO, TO HANDLE TODAY.
SO THAT MEANS WE NEED TO START THINKING ABOUT TWO ADDITIONAL LANES OF TRAFFIC.
AGAIN, I'M NOT SAYING THAT HAS TO BE ON PATTERSON HAS TO BE ON JUST IN THE AREA AS A WHOLE.
THAT'S WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.
THE MIXED USE SCENARIO BRINGS A LOT MORE COMMERCIAL IN, A LOT MORE RESIDENTIAL, IN A LOT MORE TRIPS.
THERE'S THE NEED FOR, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 70,000 PLUS TRIPS IN EXCESS OF WHAT WE CAN HANDLE TODAY.
WE'RE TALKING SIX TO EIGHT LANES OF NEW CAPACITY NEEDED IN AND AROUND THE AREA.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT KIND OF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE IN BETWEEN.
AGAIN, BECAUSE YOU HAVE SOME OF THAT INDUSTRIAL TYPE USES THAT DON'T, MAYBE DON'T GENERATE AS MUCH TRAFFIC.
UM, WE'RE ABOUT 47,000 VEHICLES OVER WHAT WE CAN HANDLE TODAY.
SO YOU'RE TALKING FOUR TO SIX NEW LANES INFRASTRUCTURE WISE.
SO NOW IF WE GO TO WATER AND SEWER, THE TOP HALF, THE GRAY HALF IS THE SAME.
I'M NOT GONNA GO THROUGH THAT AGAIN.
THOSE ARE THE SAME RESULTS AS FAR AS DEVELOPMENT.
BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR WATER AND SEWER? WELL, ONE OF THE THINGS WE FOUND OUT TODAY, UH, THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS STUDY IS THAT THE COUNTY, THROUGH ITS EXISTING CAPACITY, ITS AGREEMENTS WITH HENRICO IN THE CITY, HAS A LOT OF CAPACITY FOR WATER AND SEWER.
NOW, I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT INDIVIDUAL LINES OR THE EXTENSION OF ANY OF THOSE LINES TO THOSE PARCELS TO SERVE THEM, BUT GENERALLY OVERALL AGGREGATE, KINDA LIKE WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT WITH TRIPS, THERE'S A LOT OF EXCESS CAPACITY.
UM, THE COMP PLAN WOULD GENERATE, YOU KNOW, 230 THE NEED FOR 230,000 GALLONS PER DAY OF WATER, 218,000 OF SEWER CAPACITY WISE, THAT CAN BE HANDLED.
AGAIN, LINES WOULD NEED TO BE RUN TO DIFFERENT PARCELS, BUT OVERALL CAPACITY COULD BE HANDLED.
UM, THE MIXED USE SCENARIO, 975,000 PLUS WATER, 636,000 OF SEWER 756 0 8 IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO.
ONE OF THE TAKEAWAYS FROM THIS PROJECT IS REGARDLESS OF THE SCENARIO, THERE IS CAPACITY OUT THERE FOR THESE.
AGAIN, WE HAVE TO MAKE SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO SOME OF THE SYSTEMS, BUT OVERALL THERE'S CAPACITY FOR THE WATER AND SEWER NEEDS OF THIS STRUCTURE OF THIS STUDY AREA.
ALL RIGHT, STUDENTS, CLASSROOM SPACE, EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT THE HOUSES GENERATE STUDENTS.
[00:40:01]
I SHOULD HAVE START, BEFORE I STARTED ALL OF THIS, WE MET WITH EACH OF THE INDIVIDUAL DEPARTMENTS WITHIN THE COUNTY WHO REPRESENT THESE TRANSPORTATION SCHOOLS, FIRE AND RESCUE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, UH, ALL OF THEM.AND SO WE MET WITH THEM THROUGHOUT THIS PROCESS.
THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN, UH, GENERATES ONLY 110 HOMES.
SO THERE'S ONLY THE NEED FOR 40 NEW STUDENTS.
THAT'S ABOUT THREE CLASSROOMS NOW.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE HEARD THROUGHOUT THIS PROCESS FROM THE SCHOOL SYSTEM WAS THAT RANDOLPH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IS AT ITS CAPACITY FROM A SEWER STANDPOINT, FROM A A, UM, YOU CAN'T JUST PUT MORE TRAILERS ON THAT SITE.
SO YOU CAN'T ADD ANOTHER CLASSROOM TO THAT SCHOOL.
SO THERE WOULD BE A NEED AS THAT GROWS TO, TO RETHINK THAT, PERHAPS REDISTRICT, BUILD A NEW SCHOOL, THINGS LIKE THAT.
BUT COMPARATIVELY, THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN, 40 STUDENTS, THREE NEW CLASSROOMS, THE MIXED USE, AGAIN, WE'RE BUILDING MORE RESIDENTIAL, MORE STUDENTS, 250 14 CLASSROOMS SPREAD ACROSS ELEMENTARY, MIDDLE, HIGH SCHOOL.
BUT AGAIN, WE'RE TRYING TO GET A AN AGGREGATE TOTAL HERE.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, 80 STUDENTS, FIVE CLASSROOMS, FIRE AND RESCUE.
UM, AS JEREMY SAID, THE ANY NEW FIRE AND RESCUE BUILDING IS 15,000 SQUARE FEET.
YOU CAN'T JUST ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE TO ONE THAT, THAT IS THE NEW, UH, SIZE THAT, THAT BASED ON THE SAFETY STANDARDS, BASED ON THE, THE, THE POLICE ALWAYS HAVE A ROOM THERE AS WELL.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE TOOK, WE MET WITH CHIEF FERGUSON ON 15,000 SQUARE FEET, IS THAT NEW NUMBER.
NOW, IF YOU'RE FAMILIAR WITH THE AREA, THERE IS A NEW FIRE STATION PLANNED IN THE, IN THE, IN THE WEST CREEK AREA, RIGHT? SO THAT IS, THAT, THAT IS ON THE BOOKS THAT IS BEING PLANNED FOR THE SITE MAY CHANGE AROUND A LITTLE BIT, BUT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN PLANNED FOR ALREADY.
SO WHAT IS THE, WHAT ARE EACH OF THESE SCENARIOS FROM A, FROM A FACILITY STANDPOINT, WHAT ARE THEY CALLED FOR 11,000 SQUARE FEET OF FACILITY SPACE UNDER THE COMP PLAN? WE'VE PLANNED FOR THAT.
WE'VE GOT THAT 15,000 ON THE BOOKS.
NO NEW FACILITY NEEDED MIXED USE.
WELL NOW THAT 15,000 SQUARE FOOT BUILDING THAT WE'RE PLANNING FOR ISN'T GONNA BE ENOUGH.
SO WE NEED TO START THINKING ABOUT ANOTHER ONE AT SOME POINT.
IF THIS GETS TO FULL BUILD OUT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS RIGHT UP ON THAT CAP, UM, WE CAN HIT THAT WITH 15,000 NEW, NEW FACILITY NEEDED.
AND I'LL SAY WITH ALL OF THESE, WHEN WE LOOK AT, UM, THE SIZE OR THE, LIKE A SCHOOL CLASSROOM OR A NEW FIRE AND RESCUE, WE'RE LOOKING AT THE FACILITY SPACE.
OBVIOUSLY THERE WOULD BE NEED TO BE NEW TEACHERS, NEW PERSONNEL, HOW THE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPERS IN THE AREA WOULD GREATLY IMPACT THE NUMBER OF TEACHERS AND THE NUMBER OF FIRE PERSONNEL, SINGLE FAMILY HOMES, MORE TEACHERS, LESS FIRE.
'CAUSE YOU DON'T GET AS MANY CALLS AGE RESTRICTED, LESS STUDENTS, MORE CALLS FOR FIRE AND RESCUE.
SO THOSE ARE THINGS THAT WE'RE WORKING THROUGH IN ALL OF THIS AS WELL.
AND THEN FINALLY, WE ALSO LOOKED AT WHAT COULD WE EXPECT ON AN ANNUAL TAX BASIS FROM THE COUNTY, UM, FOR THE COUNTY ONCE THIS IS ALL DEVELOPED.
UM, AGAIN, THESE ARE JUST TAX NUMBERS.
THESE AREN'T NUMBERS OF HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN BE ACCOMMODATED OR, OR THINGS LIKE THAT.
COMP PLAN, YOU KNOW, ABOUT A 6.3 ANNUAL MEN, 6.3 MILLION ANNUAL IN TAX REVENUE, 3.9 UNDER THE MIXED USE.
UM, AND 12 UNDER THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
NOW, I WILL SAY THAT THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ONE IS, UH, MORE VOLATILE BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON WHAT COMES IN.
IF DATA CENTER COMES IN, THAT NUMBER'S MUCH HIGHER.
IF IT'S MORE OF A FLEX INDUSTRIAL OR OFFICE SPACE, THAT NUMBER GOES DOWN.
SO THAT'S A NUMBER THAT CHANGES A LOT.
AND ONE OF THE BEAUTIFUL THINGS ABOUT THE TOOL THAT WE HAVE BUILT AND THAT WE'RE LEAVING BEHIND WITH COUNTY IS THAT WE CAN CHANGE THESE INPUTS AS THINGS PROGRESS, RIGHT? IF FOR SOME REASON OFFICE COMES ROARING BACK, WE CAN CHANGE SOME OF THESE INPUTS AND GET THAT NUMBER BACK.
IF THE NEXT DATA FIVE YEARS AGO, NOBODY WAS TALKING DATA CENTERS, RIGHT? NOBODY KNEW ANYTHING ABOUT THEM.
SO IF THE NEXT BIG IDEA COMES OUT, WELL THAT CAN BE ADJUSTED AND WE CAN LOOK AT THIS TOOL IN A NEW LIGHT.
SO THAT IS WHERE WE'RE AT TODAY WITH THE STUDY.
UM, WE'RE GONNA HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF AN OPEN HOUSE NOW, MIKE'S GONNA GO OVER SOME OF THE DETAILS OF THAT.
UM, WE'RE GONNA INVITE YOU TO COME LOOK AT THE TOOL, GO AROUND THE ROOM, AND THEN WE'RE GONNA COME BACK FOR SOME QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS AT THE END.
AND I THINK WE'RE ACTUALLY GONNA MAYBE TAKE A FEW QUESTIONS NOW.
UM, UH, BUT I, I DO JUST WANT TO GO OVER QUICKLY WHAT, UH, OUR PLAN IS HERE.
UM, SO WE'VE SET UP THREE STATIONS AND WE REALLY, WE KNOW THAT WAS A LOT OF INFORMATION.
YOU KNOW, WE CRUNCHED A LOT OF NUMBERS, GATHERED A LOT OF DATA TO PUT TOGETHER THIS TOOL THAT WE HOPE SUPPORTS THE COUNTY'S PLANNING GOING FORWARD.
AND YOU PROBABLY HAVE A LOT OF QUESTIONS IN YOUR MIND.
AND WE HAVE A FEW STATIONS WHERE WE PLAN TO DO THAT UPFRONT HERE.
UM, WE HAVE TWO COMPUTERS WHERE, UH, WE'RE GLAD TO SHOW YOU KIND OF THIS TOOL, YOU KNOW, CHANGE ASSUMPTIONS, CHANGE INPUT, SEE HOW IT CHANGES THINGS.
UM, BACK HERE WE HAVE A COUPLE OF BOARDS
[00:45:01]
WHERE, UM, WE'D LOVE FOR YOU TO LEAVE QUESTIONS THAT YOU HAVE.THE BOARD ON THE RIGHT IS SPECIFICALLY ABOUT WHAT QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS DO YOU HAVE ABOUT THIS STUDY.
THE BOARD ON THE LEFT IS ABOUT, UM, IDEAS YOU HAVE ABOUT HOW THIS APPROACH OR THIS TOOL COULD BE HELPFUL, COULD BE USED IN FUTURE PLANNING.
YOU CAN LEAVE YOUR IDEAS AND WE'LL RESPOND TO ALL THE QUESTIONS AND POST THAT TO THE WEBSITE AS THE GAME PLAN.
AND WE CAN ALSO TAKE SEVERAL OF THEM HERE TONIGHT.
UM, AND THEN FINALLY BACK HERE IS A BLOWN UP LAND BAY BA, UH, MAP IN THE BACK, RIGHT? AND ALSO THE RESULTS THAT STEVE JUST PRESENTED SO WE CAN, UM, GO INTO MORE DETAIL.
WE HAVE, UH, OH, AND OVER HERE THERE IS A POSTCARD WHERE YOU CAN TAKE HOME.
IT'S GOT A LITTLE QR CODE ON IT.
YOU CAN USE YOUR PHONE TO GO, UH, ONLINE AND LEARN MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE STUDY.
WE'LL KIND OF GET UP AND MOVE AROUND.
THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE HERE, SO WE MAY MOVE A FEW CHAIRS, BUT I DO THINK BEFORE WE DO THAT, WE'RE GONNA TAKE A FEW QUESTIONS AND WE HAVE A SECOND MIC THAT'LL BE BROUGHT AROUND.
PLEASE, UH, WAIT FOR THE MIC BECAUSE THERE'S A YOUTUBE RECORDING GOING ON RIGHT NOW, AND THEN PEOPLE WILL BE ABLE TO HEAR YOUR QUESTION.
WILL THIS SLIDE SHOW BE ON THE WEBSITE? YES, WE CAN MAKE THAT AVAILABLE.
ONE OTHER QUESTION IF I MIGHT.
UH, ON RELATIVE TO THE TAX IMPACT, UH, TAX REVENUE IMPACT, IS THAT GROSS OR NET? IT'S, IT'S, IT'S GROSS.
HAS THERE BEEN A, UM, AN ADJUSTMENT MADE FOR WHAT THE, UH, TAX IMPACT, UH, ON, ON THE RESIDENTS OF THE COUNTY WOULD BE TO NET THAT OUT? NO, IT'S A GREAT, BUT IT'S A, IT'S A, IT'S A GREAT SORT OF NEXT STEP FOR ALL OF THIS AS IT STANDS NOW, RIGHT? THIS IS JUST ALL ON TOP OF WHATEVER THERE IS, UH, TODAY.
BUT IT WOULD BE VERY INTERESTING, I THINK TO DO THAT, JUST SAYING TO ADD THAT MANY RESIDENTS OR HOMES OR BUSINESSES, THERE'S GONNA SIGNIFICANT TAX IMPACT TO SUPPORT THAT ALSO.
AND JUST TO BUILD ON THAT, THE IMPROVEMENTS THAT YOU SAW FOR EACH OF THE SCENARIOS, WE ARE COSTING THOSE OUT.
THAT WOULD BE PART OF THE FINAL REPORT.
UM, SO THOSE, YOU KNOW, THOSE NEW LANES OR THE, THAT NEW SCHOOL CLASSROOM THAT WILL BE PART OF IT, THAT COST ESTIMATE.
UH, COULD YOU EXPLAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY? DID ANYBODY ACTUALLY GO OUT AND LOOK AT THIS LAND OR FLY A DRONE OVER IT? AND DID YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT, UM, THE COAL MINES THAT WERE HERE IN THE, UH, 17TH AND 18TH, 18TH AND 19TH CENTURIES THAT MIGHT HAVE AN, AN IMPACT ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENT? I'LL, I'LL START AND THEN PLEASE JUMP IN.
WE DID NOT LOOK AT ANY INDIVIDUAL PARCEL.
WE DID CERTAINLY DRIVE AND LOOK AT THE AREA.
WE DID NOT GO ON PRIVATE PROPERTY OR THINGS LIKE THAT OR FLY A DRONE OVER PRIVATE PROPERTY.
UM, WE DID NOT ASSUME THAT EVERY PARCEL, EVERY PARCEL WAS, WE ASSUMED AT 75% BUILD OUT.
SO WE DIDN'T SAY, WE KNOW THAT THERE'S GONNA BE WETLANDS.
WE KNOW THAT THERE'S GONNA BE THINGS THAT ARE GONNA HAPPEN THAT YOU CAN'T BUILD ON EVERY SQUARE INCH OF, NOR DO WE WANT TO.
SO WE DID TAKE THAT DOWN TO 75%, UM, BUT WE DID NOT GO PARTIAL BY PARCEL.
AGAIN, MASTER PLANNING KIND OF THING.
LAMB BAY BY LAMB BASE IS, IS THE APPROACH WE TOOK HERE.
IT IS WORTH NOTING, OH, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN WHAT, WHEN WE'RE TALKING ABOUT FULL BUILD OUT, THAT MEANS 90% OF THE AVAILABLE LAND IS ELIGIBLE FOR USE AND 75% OF THAT LAND ACTUALLY IS PART, IS IS CONSIDERED PART OF LIKE THE CALCULATION.
IF WE WERE GOING TO DO, SAY, UH, TWO UNITS PER ACRE, IT WOULD ONLY BE THE 75% OF THE 95% THAT THAT'S THE PART THAT GETS CARVED OUT.
SO WHILE WE WOULDN'T KNOW SPECIFICS ABOUT ANY INDIVIDUAL PARCEL OR, I MEAN EVEN IN THE COAL, MINE COULD BE SEVERAL PARCELS,
UM, BUT BECAUSE IT'S AGGREGATED, I THINK THAT THE HOPE WOULD BE THAT IT'S EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED IN THE FACT THAT WE'RE ALREADY ASSUMING THAT SOME THINGS CAN'T BE BUILT ON AT ALL TIMES.
UM, CAN YOU DEFINE MULTIFAMILY AND PURPOSES OF THIS STUDY? IS IT CONDOS, TOWNHOUSES, OR APARTMENTS OR, UH, TOWNHOUSES AT, UM, AT 12, UH, DWELLING UNITS PER ACRE? SO A, A NUMBER THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH, MY GUESS IS IN YOUR MIND'S EYE WHAT A TOWNHOUSE LOOKS LIKE.
THERE ARE ABOUT 12 DWELLING UNITS PER ACRE, BUT THAT'S AS, THAT'S AS DETAILED AS, AS WE WOULD GET FOR THIS PARTICULAR ITERATION OF THE TOOL.
SO NOT A HEAVY CONCENTRATION OF A APARTMENTS.
AND JUST TO FOLLOW UP, THE SINGLE FAMILIES, WE ASSUMED AT 2.5 UNITS PER ACRE, WHERE, WHERE WATER AND SEWER WAS AVAILABLE ONE UNIT PER ACRE WHERE WE DIDN'T, CAN YOU GIVE AN EXAMPLE OF, YOU KNOW, A SIMPLE EXAMPLE, WHAT IS COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND WHAT IS INDUSTRIAL FOR THESE
[00:50:01]
PROPERTIES? SURE.SO COMMERCIAL REALLY JUST MEANS NON-RESIDENTIAL, IT'S THERE FOR COMMERCE.
UM, INDUSTRIAL EFFECTIVELY FALLS WITHIN THE, THE WIDER UMBRELLA OF COMMERCIAL IN A REAL WAY.
AND THAT REALLY JUST TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING THAT, UH, THAT CREATES A PRODUCT THAT IT SENDS OUT.
IT, IT, IT'S AN, YOU KNOW, SOME INDUSTRY, BUT THAT CAN INCLUDE THINGS AS, YOU KNOW, CAN REALLY INCLUDE THINGS LIKE WAREHOUSING AS WELL.
IF, IF, IF YOU WANT, UM, ALL OF THE, IF YOU'RE, IF THERE'S A CONCERN ABOUT, YOU KNOW, SORT OF LIKE THE, THE WIDER IMPACTS OF THE KINDS OF INDUSTRIAL USES THAT ARE ASSUMED, THESE ARE ALL TECHNICALLY WHAT ARE CONSIDERED LIGHT INDUSTRIAL USES, WHICH ARE THE ONES THAT HAVE SORT OF THE MOST MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE SURROUNDING AREAS.
SO THERE'S NO LIKE, OH, WE ASSUMED A TIRE FIRE BURNING FACTOR OR ANYTHING.
I MEAN, THESE ARE ALL, UH, THINGS THAT ARE MEANT TO BE DONE IN A WAY THAT THAT, YOU KNOW, CAN SUIT A COMMERCIAL ENVIRONMENT.
WOULD THAT BE A FACTORY? UH, IT WOULDN'T, IT PROBABLY WOULDN'T BE LIKE A FACTORY THAT PRODUCES SMOKE.
I MEAN, THE CHANCES OF THAT BEING SOMETHING THAT GOT APPROVED, WE, WE PROBABLY ASSUME WOULD, WHAT WOULD IT PRODUCE? OH, GOOD QUESTION.
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE THINGS, SOMETHING I WANT TO, YOU KNOW, LIKE MEDICAL, UM, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE THINGS I, UM, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE THINGS THAT ARE OUT THERE RIGHT NOW THAT FIT? MAYBE I'D ASK EVEN TOM, LIKE WHAT'S SOME, A COMPANY THAT BUILDS GUITAR CASES? YEAH, YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.
AND, AND MORE OF THE HIGHER TECH KIND OF THINGS WE LOOKED AT, MEDICAL RESEARCH, MEDICAL THINGS LIKE THAT.
UM, YOU KNOW, WE'RE NOT SPECIFICALLY LOOKING AT ANY SORT OF FACTORY OR IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE OF THE WORD.
AND, AND AGAIN, I I DO WANNA REITERATE THAT NONE OF THIS IS ABOUT LIKE WHAT, WHAT IT WOULD BECOME A PLAN OR A POLICY.
IT'S A WAY TO INVESTIGATE THE INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS OF ALL THESE VARIOUS TYPES OF THINGS.
IT, THERE, THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF OTHER THINGS THAT MAY BE OF IMPORT AS WELL.
AND THAT'S WHY THIS ISN'T A POLICY MAKING TOOL.
IT IS A TOOL THAT IS PART OF A DECISION MAKING PROCESS FOR, FOR I THINK SOME OF THE VERY THINGS THAT YOU MAYBE YOU YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT OF WHAT IT WOULD MEAN IF THERE WAS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTY.
HI, CAN YOU HELP ME UNDERSTAND WHY ON THE SLIDE FINDINGS IN THE TAX BASE UNDER THE COMP PLAN, WHICH IS KIND OF STATUS QUO, RIGHT? MM-HMM.
UH, SO BASED ON, BASED ON THE UH, THE CURRENT, UM, TAX GUIDANCE FOR GLAND COUNTY, YOU KNOW WHAT, SO YOUR, YOU KNOW, YOUR RESIDENTIAL MILLAGE RATE AND THEN WHAT, UH, CHARGED FOR COMMERCIAL USES RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS PROVIDE A LOT LESS TAX REVENUE THAN DO COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS.
IT'S REALLY JUST AS SIMPLE AS THAT.
SO THE MORE THE LAND THAT GETS USED FOR RESIDENTIAL PURPOSES, EFFECTIVELY THE LESS ECONOMICALLY PRODUCTIVE THE, THE LAND BECOMES.
THIS IS PART OF WHY IT'S SUCH A GREAT THING TO HAVE A MIX OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL USES IN A COMMUNITY BECAUSE IT JUST COSTS A LOT OF, YOU KNOW, YOU, YOU GET A LOT LESS, YOU KNOW, YOU GET A LOT LESS TAX REVENUE OUT OF, OUT OF A RESIDENTIAL UNIT THAN YOU DO WITH THE SAME LIKE THE EQUIVALENT SPACE FOR A COMMERCIAL.
BUT IT'S AN IMPORTANT THING, AN IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE.
AND ONE OF, I THINK SORT OF THE, THE IMPORTANT FINDINGS OF DOING THIS KIND OF ANALYSIS, CAN YOU HELP ME? I'M HAVING TROUBLE WRAPPING MY HEAD AROUND THE VEHICLES PER DAY, WHICH I THOUGHT WAS LIKE 80,000 OR SOMETHING AND 3000 HOMES.
SO IF EACH HOME HAS THREE PEOPLE, THAT'S 9,000 PEOPLE MAKING 93,000 MUTED
MIKE, I'M JUST TRYING TO WRAP MY HEAD AROUND HOW THEY GET TO THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES.
IT SEEMS LIKE A LOT OF VEHICLES FOR HOUSEHOLD TO ME, TO ME, BUT IT, I'M SURE THERE'S A GOOD EXPLANATION.
YEAH, SO JEREMY KIND OF WALKED YOU THROUGH A LITTLE BIT OF THAT WITH TRIPS WE LOOK TOWARDS NATIONAL DATA FROM ITE, UM, I'LL TELL YOU THAT THE AVERAGE SINGLE FAMILY HOME IS RIGHT ABOUT BETWEEN NINE AND 10 TRIPS PER DAY.
UM, THAT MEANS YOU LEAVE FOR WORK IN THE MORNING, YOU COME BACK, THAT'S TWO TRIPS.
YOU GO OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY, YOU COME BACK.
SO THE AVERAGE SINGLE FAMILY HOME IS RIGHT IN THAT NINE TO 10 RANGE.
SO 660 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IS ABOUT 6,500 OR SO TRIPS PER DAY.
MULTIFAMILY, THAT NUMBER COMES DOWN A LITTLE BIT.
USUALLY THERE'S LESS PEOPLE, MAYBE THERE'S YOUNGER PEOPLE THAT LIVE THERE.
THAT'S, YOU KNOW, 6, 7, 8 TRIPS PER DAY RANGE DEPENDS, TOWN HOMES ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN MULTIFAMILY.
UM, BUT AGAIN, THAT'S KIND OF WHERE WE GET TO THAT MATH.
BUT THEN AGAIN, WITH THE MIXED USE SCENARIO, WE ARE ASSUMING MORE RETAIL, UM, YOU KNOW, FRONTING PATTERSON AVENUE OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
PERHAPS RETAIL BRINGS MORE TRIPS.
THAT'S WHY THE MIXED USE HAS, UH, THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF TRIPS GENERATED
[00:55:07]
3000 OR ACTUALLY 73,000 CARS, RIGHT? SO YOU, YOU GOTTA ALSO FACTOR IN THE 2.5 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF COMMERCIAL.AND SO SINGLE FAMILY AND, AND, AND, AND MULTIFAMILY ARE REALLY EASY CALCULATIONS TO MAKE.
THOSE ARE NUMBERS THAT I KNOW.
SO WE CAN REAL QUICKLY GET TO THAT.
THE COMMERCIAL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH RETAIL, HOW MUCH OFFICE, HOW MUCH, YOU KNOW, INDUSTRIAL, WE'VE GOT ALL THOSE NUMBERS BAKED IN.
I'D LOVE TO WALK THROUGH THEM WITH YOU LATER.
UM, BUT IT IS AN AGGREGATE KIND OF THING.
YEAH, I, I HAD ONE THAT'S A VERY BIG PICTURE KIND OF QUESTION AND MAYBE IT'S BEEN ASKED BEFORE, BUT IS IT POSSIBLE TO CREATE SORT OF AN ANALOG MINDSET WHAT ONE OF THESE LOOKS LIKE? IN OTHER WORDS, THE SPACE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IS FROM, YOU KNOW, PATTERSON, THE THREE CHOP FROM HERE TO THERE AND IT'S KIND OF LIKE INNSBROOK OR IT'S KIND OF LIKE INNSBROOK PLUS WELLESLEY.
IS THERE A WAY TO DO THAT OR HAVE YOU DONE THAT AND IS THAT'S, THAT WAS MY MAIN QUESTION.
WE HAVE NOT DONE THAT FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
ONE, WE DON'T WANT TO PRODUCE A MAP OR A SCENARIO WHERE WE'RE TRYING, TRYING TO MAKE AN INDIVIDUAL PARCEL OR EVEN LAMBAY DECISION TO SAY, WELL, YOU HAVE TO HAVE THE INNSBROOK PART OF IT, OR YOU HAVE TO HAVE THIS PART OF IT.
WE'RE TRYING TO AGGREGATE THIS AS A WHOLE.
UM, SO NO, I DON'T HAVE A GOOD EXAMPLE TO POINT YOU TO OF IT.
IT WOULD BE LIKE THIS OR LIKE THAT.
UM, YOU KNOW, WE CAN TRY AND COME UP WITH SOME GOOD EXAMPLES, BUT WE DON'T WANNA PRODUCE AT THIS POINT, THIS LEVEL.
THE STUDY WAS NOT INTENDED TO MAKE THOSE DECISIONS ON WHERE THINGS GO AND YEAH, HOW BIG, HOW MANY, HOW MANY WE OH YEAH.
I'M GONNA, I'M GONNA TAKE US BACK TO ONE OF THE EARLIER SLIDES.
ALL RIGHT, SO THERE'S A MAP OF GLAND COUNTY, OUR STUDY AREA IS THAT LITTLE WHITE SPOT, THAT LITTLE WHITE CIRCLE.
UH, THE, AND THEN THE MAP OVER THERE, UH, MIGHT BE MOST HELPFUL AND SORT OF DETERMINING, YOU KNOW, UH, SOME OF THE STREET NAMES OR SOME, YOU KNOW, THE, THERE'S THE GOLF COURSE, WHATEVER, THAT, THAT'S MAYBE THE BEST, THE BEST VERSION.
AND I WOULD SAY, UH, UH, TO FOLLOW UP ON WHAT STEVE SAID TOO, UM, Y YOU KNOW, WHEN WHEN WE, WHEN WE GET TO THE POINT OF LIKE, THIS ONE HAS X MILLION NUMBER OF SQUARE FEET OR WHATEVER, I MEAN THE WHAT CONSTITUTES, I THINK ULTIMATELY LIKE THE, YOU KNOW, THE ONE ONE PLACE BEING LIKE A SUCCESS IN YOUR MIND VERSUS A FAILURE HAS AS MUCH TO DO WITH SORT OF LIKE THE DESIGN OF THE PLACE AS IT DOES WITH ANY OF THIS SORT OF STUFF.
UM, AND SO, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN MAKE ANY OF THESE BE BE BEAUTIFUL AND WELCOMING AND YOU CAN MAKE ANY OF 'EM THE EXACT OPPOSITE.
UM, AND THERE'S A LOT MORE THAT GOES INTO IT THAN JUST, JUST THE NUMBERS.
AND I THINK WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MAYBE COMING WITH, WITH IT.
'CAUSE WE, I MEAN WE TALKED ABOUT THIS VERY THING, LIKE HOW CAN PEOPLE VISUALIZE THIS? IT'S REALLY DIFFICULT.
BUT THAT COMES DOWN TO LIKE THE, THERE, THERE CAN ALSO BE A VALUE JUDGMENT IN JUST LIKE THE, THE PICTURE.
AND WE DIDN'T WANT ANYBODY TO GET SORT OF AN IMPRESSION AND THAT THAT SORT OF, SO I DO APOLOGIZE FOR BEING DIFFICULT TO WRAP ONE'S HEAD AROUND.
UM, LIKE, YOU KNOW, JUST, IT'S HARD TO CONTEXTUALIZE THESE NUMBERS FOR SURE.
BUT THAT'S AT LEAST WHERE OUR HEADS WERE, IF THAT MAKES SENSE.
WE'LL TAKE LIKE TWO MORE AND THEN WE'RE GONNA OPEN UP TO INTERACT AND WE CAN COME BACK AND ANSWER SOME MORE AT THE END.
IT, IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL TOO, JUST FOLLOWING UP ON WHAT THAT GENTLEMAN SAID, TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF A POINT OF REFERENCE OR BENCHMARK AND I THINK ABOUT 2.5 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF COMMERCIAL THAT'S PROBABLY BIGGER THAN SHORT PUMP, RIGHT? WHEN I THINK ABOUT 4.3 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF COMMERCIAL, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT WOULD BE THE EQUIVALENT OF.
SO AS YOU THINK ABOUT THIS, YOU KNOW, TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF POINT OF REFERENCE OR BENCHMARKS GOES BACK TO FEASIBILITY, I GUESS.
YEAH, WE CAN CERTAINLY DO THAT.
UM, I WOULD WITH ANY, OH PARTICULAR, UM, ONE OF THE OUTPUTS HERE THAT IT WILL SHOW YOU IS, CAN YOU SEE THIS ONE? YEP.
TWO AND A HALF TIMES THE EXISTING COMMERCIAL SQUARE FOOTAGE OF THE OVERALL OF THE, OF LIKE THE OVERALL STUDY AREA OF WHAT'S OUT THERE NOW.
SO THIS VERSION TWO POINT, THAT'S WHAT TWO POINT, BUT AT LEAST THAT'S SOME MODICUM OF CONTEXTUALIZING WHAT TWO AND A HALF MILLION SQUARE FOOT MEAN MEANS RELATIVE TO WHAT'S THERE TODAY.
DOES THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE COMP PLAN, THE TWO AND A HALF.
[01:00:01]
OH, JUST, YOU KNOW, THAT, THAT, WHICHEVER THIS, ONCE YOU PLUG IT IN, IT TELLS YOU, IT GIVES YOU THAT, THAT OUTPUT.SO I MEAN I'D BE HAPPY TO SHOW YOU LATER.
I UNDERSTAND, BUT THAT'S, SO THERE IS AT LEAST AN ATTEMPT AT DOING, AT DOING THAT, THAT VERY, THAT VERY THING.
BUT I THINK IT WOULD BE KIND OF FUN TO HAVE AN ADD-ON THAT'S LIKE, HERE'S SOME, YOU KNOW, HERE'S SOME OF THE OTHER THINGS THAT YOU KNOW, EXIST IN YOUR MIND'S EYE AND HOW MUCH THEY HAVE.
I THINK THAT WOULD REALLY HELP PEOPLE.
BUT WHAT WE WILL DO IS WE WILL ANSWER THAT QUESTION.
WE'LL PUT IT UP ON THE WEBSITE TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF SHORE PUMP IS X, THIS IS THAT, UM, WITHIN THAT I WOULD LIKE YOU TO KEEP IN MIND THAT WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT IS A MUCH LARGER AREA THAN SHORE PUMP.
SO IF WE SAY IT'S GONNA BE EXACTLY THE SAME AS SHORE PUMP, WE'RE NOT PUTTING IT ON THAT SMALL OF A PARCEL THAT'S GONNA BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE WHOLE STUDY AREA.
SO, BUT WE WILL, WE WILL ANSWER THAT QUESTION.
HOW ABOUT ONE MORE AND THEN WE'LL BREAK FOR A MINUTE.
SO, CARRYING ON WITH THAT THOUGHT, WHAT SQUARE FOOTAGE EXISTS TODAY IN THIS STUDY AREA AND WHAT PERCENTAGE WOULD THAT INCREASE IT BY? I WILL DOUBLE CHECK THAT RIGHT HERE.
AND WE COULD EVEN SHOW AND LOOK, BUT YEAH, I, I HESITATE TO DO IT OFF OF THIS SORT OF LIKE, YOU KNOW, CLICKING THROUGH THE BUTTONS TO MAKE SURE, BUT THE EXISTING COMMERCIAL SQUARE FOOTAGE NUMBER IS ROOTED IN WHAT'S ACTUALLY OUT THERE.
THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE IT'S 1 MILLION SQUARE FEET, BUT I, I WILL, I WILL MAKE SURE TO CHECK AND HAVE THAT BE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT, THAT GETS ANSWERED FOR SURE.
ALL RIGHT, SO WE'RE GONNA TAKE A FEW MINUTES.
WE'VE GOT THE, THE POSTERS OVER HERE.
WE'D LOVE TO HEAR YOUR QUESTIONS, YOUR THOUGHTS.
WE CAN WALK YOU THROUGH THE MODEL UPFRONT.
WE'VE GOT THE RESULTS IN THE BACK.
WE CAN ANSWER QUESTIONS ON, UM, IF WE WOULD, WE WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS.
THIS STUDY GETS BETTER AND BETTER EACH TIME WE MEET WITH YOU, EACH TIME WE HEAR FROM YOUR COMMENTS AND YOUR QUESTIONS.
WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO COME, INTERACT WITH ALL OF US AND WE'LL COME BACK AND ANSWER SOME MORE QUESTIONS IN A LITTLE BIT.
[01:26:49]
THE[01:26:49]
BIG[01:26:49]
MIC,[01:26:50]
MIKE.[01:26:52]
SO ONE AND TWO SPEAKER.WHERE'S MIKE? MIKE THE SPEAKER.
SEE IF THERE'S ANY OTHER OVERALL QUESTIONS FOR THE GROUP.
I KNOW PEOPLE HAVE CLEARED OUT A LITTLE BIT, BUT HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY OTHER QUESTIONS THAT PEOPLE MAY HAVE.
FOLKS, FOLKS, IF NOT, THANK YOU.
WE, YOU KNOW, WHEN AT THE END IT TOOK JUST A SECOND TO KIND OF EXPLAIN LIKE, OH, IT'S A LOT OF INFORMATION.
DO WE, SHOULD WE, HEY, THANKS EVERYONE.